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Impact of climate change on the population dynamics of Ips typographus in southern Sweden

Jönsson, Anna Maria LU ; Harding, Susanne; Bärring, Lars LU and Ravn, Hans Peter (2007) In Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 146(1-2). p.70-81
Abstract
Mass-propagation of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus, following windfalls and drought is a serious threat to mature spruce forests. Climate change will affect the population dynamics of I. typographus directly as the swarming activity and development rate are mainly controlled by temperature, and indirectly via changes in availability of brood trees. Today, I. typographus is in general univoltine in southern Sweden. In Denmark, however, the weather conditions usually support the production of a second generation. By modelling the temperature dependent population dynamics, we have evaluated the effect of regional climate change scenarios for the period of 2070-2099 on I. typographus in southern Sweden. Our results indicate that... (More)
Mass-propagation of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus, following windfalls and drought is a serious threat to mature spruce forests. Climate change will affect the population dynamics of I. typographus directly as the swarming activity and development rate are mainly controlled by temperature, and indirectly via changes in availability of brood trees. Today, I. typographus is in general univoltine in southern Sweden. In Denmark, however, the weather conditions usually support the production of a second generation. By modelling the temperature dependent population dynamics, we have evaluated the effect of regional climate change scenarios for the period of 2070-2099 on I. typographus in southern Sweden. Our results indicate that temperature increase will have a step-wise effect on the population dynamics. Earlier spring swarming and a faster development from egg to mature bark beetle increase the probability of a second swarming period during summer. A second swarming will be customary with an annual mean temperature increase of 2-3 degrees C. The thermal requirement for development of a second generation may, however, not be fulfilled every year with an annual mean temperature increase less than 5-6 degrees C. Winter is fatal for immature bark beetles, and the larger the temperature increase, the higher the probability that the second generation will complete development and survive hibernation. The temperature regime during autumn will therefore have a decisive impact on the size of the swarming population next spring. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
temperature, risk assessment, population dynamics, Ips typographus, modelling, impact, forest damage, climate change, bark beetles, brood development
in
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
volume
146
issue
1-2
pages
70 - 81
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000249481900006
  • scopus:34547841285
ISSN
1873-2240
DOI
10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.05.006
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
1cd13e85-437e-4fd2-b627-75419dee079b (old id 656849)
date added to LUP
2007-12-13 14:12:48
date last changed
2017-09-17 07:00:36
@article{1cd13e85-437e-4fd2-b627-75419dee079b,
  abstract     = {Mass-propagation of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus, following windfalls and drought is a serious threat to mature spruce forests. Climate change will affect the population dynamics of I. typographus directly as the swarming activity and development rate are mainly controlled by temperature, and indirectly via changes in availability of brood trees. Today, I. typographus is in general univoltine in southern Sweden. In Denmark, however, the weather conditions usually support the production of a second generation. By modelling the temperature dependent population dynamics, we have evaluated the effect of regional climate change scenarios for the period of 2070-2099 on I. typographus in southern Sweden. Our results indicate that temperature increase will have a step-wise effect on the population dynamics. Earlier spring swarming and a faster development from egg to mature bark beetle increase the probability of a second swarming period during summer. A second swarming will be customary with an annual mean temperature increase of 2-3 degrees C. The thermal requirement for development of a second generation may, however, not be fulfilled every year with an annual mean temperature increase less than 5-6 degrees C. Winter is fatal for immature bark beetles, and the larger the temperature increase, the higher the probability that the second generation will complete development and survive hibernation. The temperature regime during autumn will therefore have a decisive impact on the size of the swarming population next spring. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
  author       = {Jönsson, Anna Maria and Harding, Susanne and Bärring, Lars and Ravn, Hans Peter},
  issn         = {1873-2240},
  keyword      = {temperature,risk assessment,population dynamics,Ips typographus,modelling,impact,forest damage,climate change,bark beetles,brood development},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1-2},
  pages        = {70--81},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
  title        = {Impact of climate change on the population dynamics of Ips typographus in southern Sweden},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.05.006},
  volume       = {146},
  year         = {2007},
}