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Modelling daily temperature extremes: recent climate and future changes over Europe

Kjellstrom, Erik; Bärring, Lars LU ; Jacob, Daniela; Jones, Richard; Lenderink, Geert and Schaer, Christoph (2007) In Climatic Change 81. p.249-265
Abstract
Probability distributions of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in a suite of ten RCMs are investigated for (1) biases compared to observations in the present day climate and (2) climate change signals compared to the simulated present day climate. The simulated inter-model differences and climate changes are also compared to the observed natural variability as reflected in some very long instrumental records. All models have been forced with driving conditions from the same global model and run for both a control period and a future scenario period following the A2 emission scenario from IPCC. We find that the bias in the fifth percentile of daily minimum temperatures in winter and at the 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature... (More)
Probability distributions of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in a suite of ten RCMs are investigated for (1) biases compared to observations in the present day climate and (2) climate change signals compared to the simulated present day climate. The simulated inter-model differences and climate changes are also compared to the observed natural variability as reflected in some very long instrumental records. All models have been forced with driving conditions from the same global model and run for both a control period and a future scenario period following the A2 emission scenario from IPCC. We find that the bias in the fifth percentile of daily minimum temperatures in winter and at the 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature during summer is smaller than 3 (+/- 5 degrees C) when averaged over most (all) European sub-regions. The simulated changes in extreme temperatures both in summer and winter are larger than changes in the median for large areas. Differences between models are larger for the extremes than for mean temperatures. A comparison with historical data shows that the spread in model predicted changes in extreme temperatures is larger than the natural variability during the last centuries. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Climatic Change
volume
81
pages
249 - 265
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • wos:000247529400014
  • scopus:34248201518
ISSN
0165-0009
DOI
10.1007/s10584-006-9220-5
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
5876e557-28d6-489f-a15d-2b037ffb1ee4 (old id 657549)
date added to LUP
2007-12-13 16:53:02
date last changed
2017-09-24 03:28:28
@article{5876e557-28d6-489f-a15d-2b037ffb1ee4,
  abstract     = {Probability distributions of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in a suite of ten RCMs are investigated for (1) biases compared to observations in the present day climate and (2) climate change signals compared to the simulated present day climate. The simulated inter-model differences and climate changes are also compared to the observed natural variability as reflected in some very long instrumental records. All models have been forced with driving conditions from the same global model and run for both a control period and a future scenario period following the A2 emission scenario from IPCC. We find that the bias in the fifth percentile of daily minimum temperatures in winter and at the 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature during summer is smaller than 3 (+/- 5 degrees C) when averaged over most (all) European sub-regions. The simulated changes in extreme temperatures both in summer and winter are larger than changes in the median for large areas. Differences between models are larger for the extremes than for mean temperatures. A comparison with historical data shows that the spread in model predicted changes in extreme temperatures is larger than the natural variability during the last centuries.},
  author       = {Kjellstrom, Erik and Bärring, Lars and Jacob, Daniela and Jones, Richard and Lenderink, Geert and Schaer, Christoph},
  issn         = {0165-0009},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {249--265},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Climatic Change},
  title        = {Modelling daily temperature extremes: recent climate and future changes over Europe},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9220-5},
  volume       = {81},
  year         = {2007},
}