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Effects of data uncertainty in Swedish critical load assessment for forest soils.

Barkman, Andreas and Alveteg, Mattias LU (2001) In Water, Air and Soil Pollution 125(1-4). p.133-156
Abstract
The effects of input data uncertainty on the critical loads and exceedance estimates for Swedish forest soils was assessed using Monte Carlo simulations of the PROFILE model. The study focuses on the effects of data uncertainty on the 5%-ile critical load at 150 × 150 km resolution and the 95%-ile exceedance at 150 × 150 km and 50 × 50 km resolution. The results indicate that data uncertainty limits the possibility to differentiate grid cells on 150 × 150 km resolution. The confidence interval for a given percentile can generally be reduced if the uncertainties in calculated critical loads are addressed simultaneously for all sites in a grid cell. The resulting best estimates of the 5%-ile critical load were found to be lowered, thereby... (More)
The effects of input data uncertainty on the critical loads and exceedance estimates for Swedish forest soils was assessed using Monte Carlo simulations of the PROFILE model. The study focuses on the effects of data uncertainty on the 5%-ile critical load at 150 × 150 km resolution and the 95%-ile exceedance at 150 × 150 km and 50 × 50 km resolution. The results indicate that data uncertainty limits the possibility to differentiate grid cells on 150 × 150 km resolution. The confidence interval for a given percentile can generally be reduced if the uncertainties in calculated critical loads are addressed simultaneously for all sites in a grid cell. The resulting best estimates of the 5%-ile critical load were found to be lowered, thereby advocating larger deposition reductions to comply with a given gap closure of exceedance. The results further indicate that the number of sites within the grid cells is important for the range of the confidence interval for a given percentile. Re-aggregation of exceedance estimate in 50 × 50 km grid cells showed that differentiation may be improved as compared to 150 × 150 km resolution. For 70% of the grid cells on 50 × 50 km resolution, the confidence interval for calculated exceedance covers both negative and positive values. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
exceedance, EMEP, Monte Carlo, PROFILE, spatial resolution
in
Water, Air and Soil Pollution
volume
125
issue
1-4
pages
133 - 156
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • scopus:0035133640
ISSN
1573-2932
DOI
10.1023/A:1005245721129
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
41c130a3-8594-4f43-8639-1d1459658180 (old id 697589)
date added to LUP
2008-07-16 12:18:08
date last changed
2018-05-29 12:05:10
@article{41c130a3-8594-4f43-8639-1d1459658180,
  abstract     = {The effects of input data uncertainty on the critical loads and exceedance estimates for Swedish forest soils was assessed using Monte Carlo simulations of the PROFILE model. The study focuses on the effects of data uncertainty on the 5%-ile critical load at 150 × 150 km resolution and the 95%-ile exceedance at 150 × 150 km and 50 × 50 km resolution. The results indicate that data uncertainty limits the possibility to differentiate grid cells on 150 × 150 km resolution. The confidence interval for a given percentile can generally be reduced if the uncertainties in calculated critical loads are addressed simultaneously for all sites in a grid cell. The resulting best estimates of the 5%-ile critical load were found to be lowered, thereby advocating larger deposition reductions to comply with a given gap closure of exceedance. The results further indicate that the number of sites within the grid cells is important for the range of the confidence interval for a given percentile. Re-aggregation of exceedance estimate in 50 × 50 km grid cells showed that differentiation may be improved as compared to 150 × 150 km resolution. For 70% of the grid cells on 50 × 50 km resolution, the confidence interval for calculated exceedance covers both negative and positive values.},
  author       = {Barkman, Andreas and Alveteg, Mattias},
  issn         = {1573-2932},
  keyword      = {exceedance,EMEP,Monte Carlo,PROFILE,spatial resolution},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1-4},
  pages        = {133--156},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Water, Air and Soil Pollution},
  title        = {Effects of data uncertainty in Swedish critical load assessment for forest soils.},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005245721129},
  volume       = {125},
  year         = {2001},
}