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Socioeconomic impacts of Russian invasion of Ukraine: A multiregional assessment for Europe

Almazán-Gómez, Miguel Angel ; Llano, Carlos ; Perez, Julian and Rauhut, Daniel LU (2023) In Journal of Regional Science 64(2).
Abstract
History shows that wars can be enormously disruptive of economic activity, especially international trade, national income, and global economic welfare. This article analyzes the impact on the European regions the Russian invasion of Ukraine using the largest and most updated multiregional input-output model for Europe. Two shocks, trade and inflation, and four alternative scenarios are simulated. The scenarios are considered regarding the number of countries applying a trade embargo, the exemption of oil and gas, and the potential trade diversions with third countries such as China. We obtained a significant fall in GDP (−1.7%), 3.7 m lost jobs and 3% raise over the prewar inflation rate. For trade shock, large indirect effects are... (More)
History shows that wars can be enormously disruptive of economic activity, especially international trade, national income, and global economic welfare. This article analyzes the impact on the European regions the Russian invasion of Ukraine using the largest and most updated multiregional input-output model for Europe. Two shocks, trade and inflation, and four alternative scenarios are simulated. The scenarios are considered regarding the number of countries applying a trade embargo, the exemption of oil and gas, and the potential trade diversions with third countries such as China. We obtained a significant fall in GDP (−1.7%), 3.7 m lost jobs and 3% raise over the prewar inflation rate. For trade shock, large indirect effects are obtained, indicating the high relevance of the sectors and countries exposed to the war and the sanctions. The republics of the former Soviet Union, as well as the satellite countries of the former communism, face the harshest adverse impacts. This work shows the importance of breaking Russia's colonial economic ties to the countries in Eastern Europe. (Less)
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author
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publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Journal of Regional Science
volume
64
issue
2
publisher
Halifax
external identifiers
  • scopus:85177445708
ISSN
0022-4146
DOI
10.1111/jors.12676
language
English
LU publication?
no
id
69c656cb-757b-4ca4-b8e0-409f1abe55da
date added to LUP
2024-03-06 12:39:12
date last changed
2024-03-07 08:58:51
@article{69c656cb-757b-4ca4-b8e0-409f1abe55da,
  abstract     = {{History shows that wars can be enormously disruptive of economic activity, especially international trade, national income, and global economic welfare. This article analyzes the impact on the European regions the Russian invasion of Ukraine using the largest and most updated multiregional input-output model for Europe. Two shocks, trade and inflation, and four alternative scenarios are simulated. The scenarios are considered regarding the number of countries applying a trade embargo, the exemption of oil and gas, and the potential trade diversions with third countries such as China. We obtained a significant fall in GDP (−1.7%), 3.7 m lost jobs and 3% raise over the prewar inflation rate. For trade shock, large indirect effects are obtained, indicating the high relevance of the sectors and countries exposed to the war and the sanctions. The republics of the former Soviet Union, as well as the satellite countries of the former communism, face the harshest adverse impacts. This work shows the importance of breaking Russia's colonial economic ties to the countries in Eastern Europe.}},
  author       = {{Almazán-Gómez, Miguel Angel and Llano, Carlos and Perez, Julian and Rauhut, Daniel}},
  issn         = {{0022-4146}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{2}},
  publisher    = {{Halifax}},
  series       = {{Journal of Regional Science}},
  title        = {{Socioeconomic impacts of Russian invasion of Ukraine: A multiregional assessment for Europe}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jors.12676}},
  doi          = {{10.1111/jors.12676}},
  volume       = {{64}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}