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From rain to famine: assessing the utility of rainfall observations and seasonal forecasts to anticipate food insecurity in East Africa

Coughlan de Perez, Erin ; van Aalst, Maarten ; Choularton, Richard LU orcid ; van den Hurk, Bart ; Mason, Simon ; Nissan, Hannah and Schwager, Saroja (2019) In Food security 11. p.57-68
Abstract
East Africa experiences chronic food insecurity, with levels varying from year-to-year across the region. Given that much can be done to prevent this level of suffering before it happens, humanitarian agencies monitor early indicators of food insecurity to trigger early action. Forecasts of total seasonal rainfall are one tool used to monitor and anticipate food security outcomes. Factors beyond rainfall, such as conflict, are key determinants of whether lack of rainfall can become a problem. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis that isolates the value of rainfall information in anticipating food security outcomes across livelihood groups in East Africa. Comparing observed rainfall and temperature with food security... (More)
East Africa experiences chronic food insecurity, with levels varying from year-to-year across the region. Given that much can be done to prevent this level of suffering before it happens, humanitarian agencies monitor early indicators of food insecurity to trigger early action. Forecasts of total seasonal rainfall are one tool used to monitor and anticipate food security outcomes. Factors beyond rainfall, such as conflict, are key determinants of whether lack of rainfall can become a problem. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis that isolates the value of rainfall information in anticipating food security outcomes across livelihood groups in East Africa. Comparing observed rainfall and temperature with food security classifications, we quantify how much the chance of food insecurity increases when rainfall is low. Results differed dramatically among livelihood groups; pastoralists in East Africa more frequently experience food insecurity than do non-pastoralists, and 12 months of low rainfall greatly increases the chances of “crisis” and “emergency” food security in pastoralist regions. In non-pastoralist regions, the relationship with total rainfall is not as strong. Similar results were obtained for livelihood groups in Kenya and Ethiopia, with slightly differing results in Somalia. Given this, we evaluated the relevance of monitoring and forecasting seasonal total rainfall. Our quantitative results demonstrate that six months of rainfall observations can already indicate a heightened risk of food insecurity, a full six months before conditions deteriorate. Combining rainfall observations with seasonal forecasts can further change the range of possible outcomes to indicate higher or lower risk of food insecurity, but the added value of seasonal forecasts is noticeable only when they show a strong probability of below-normal rainfall. (Less)
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author
; ; ; ; ; and
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Food security
volume
11
pages
57 - 68
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • scopus:85061431607
ISSN
1876-4517
DOI
10.1007/s12571-018-00885-9
language
English
LU publication?
no
id
6abaab25-6e3d-4534-a340-e71a02a550e1
date added to LUP
2022-11-30 20:56:10
date last changed
2022-12-05 15:50:46
@article{6abaab25-6e3d-4534-a340-e71a02a550e1,
  abstract     = {{East Africa experiences chronic food insecurity, with levels varying from year-to-year across the region. Given that much can be done to prevent this level of suffering before it happens, humanitarian agencies monitor early indicators of food insecurity to trigger early action. Forecasts of total seasonal rainfall are one tool used to monitor and anticipate food security outcomes. Factors beyond rainfall, such as conflict, are key determinants of whether lack of rainfall can become a problem. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis that isolates the value of rainfall information in anticipating food security outcomes across livelihood groups in East Africa. Comparing observed rainfall and temperature with food security classifications, we quantify how much the chance of food insecurity increases when rainfall is low. Results differed dramatically among livelihood groups; pastoralists in East Africa more frequently experience food insecurity than do non-pastoralists, and 12 months of low rainfall greatly increases the chances of “crisis” and “emergency” food security in pastoralist regions. In non-pastoralist regions, the relationship with total rainfall is not as strong. Similar results were obtained for livelihood groups in Kenya and Ethiopia, with slightly differing results in Somalia. Given this, we evaluated the relevance of monitoring and forecasting seasonal total rainfall. Our quantitative results demonstrate that six months of rainfall observations can already indicate a heightened risk of food insecurity, a full six months before conditions deteriorate. Combining rainfall observations with seasonal forecasts can further change the range of possible outcomes to indicate higher or lower risk of food insecurity, but the added value of seasonal forecasts is noticeable only when they show a strong probability of below-normal rainfall.}},
  author       = {{Coughlan de Perez, Erin and van Aalst, Maarten and Choularton, Richard and van den Hurk, Bart and Mason, Simon and Nissan, Hannah and Schwager, Saroja}},
  issn         = {{1876-4517}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  pages        = {{57--68}},
  publisher    = {{Springer}},
  series       = {{Food security}},
  title        = {{From rain to famine: assessing the utility of rainfall observations and seasonal forecasts to anticipate food insecurity in East Africa}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12571-018-00885-9}},
  doi          = {{10.1007/s12571-018-00885-9}},
  volume       = {{11}},
  year         = {{2019}},
}