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Occurrence of crop pests and diseases has largely increased in China since 1970

Wang, Chenzhi ; Wang, Xuhui ; Jin, Zhenong ; Müller, Christoph LU ; Pugh, Thomas A.M. LU ; Chen, Anping ; Wang, Tao ; Huang, Ling ; Zhang, Yuan and Li, Laurent X.Z. , et al. (2022) In Nature Food 3(1). p.57-65
Abstract

Crop pests and diseases (CPDs) are emerging threats to global food security, but trends in the occurrence of pests and diseases remain largely unknown due to the lack of observations for major crop producers. Here, on the basis of a unique historical dataset with more than 5,500 statistical records, we found an increased occurrence of CPDs in every province of China, with the national average rate of CPD occurrence increasing by a factor of four (from 53% to 218%) during 1970–2016. Historical climate change is responsible for more than one-fifth of the observed increment of CPD occurrence (22% ± 17%), ranging from 2% to 79% in different provinces. Among the climatic factors considered, warmer nighttime temperatures contribute most to... (More)

Crop pests and diseases (CPDs) are emerging threats to global food security, but trends in the occurrence of pests and diseases remain largely unknown due to the lack of observations for major crop producers. Here, on the basis of a unique historical dataset with more than 5,500 statistical records, we found an increased occurrence of CPDs in every province of China, with the national average rate of CPD occurrence increasing by a factor of four (from 53% to 218%) during 1970–2016. Historical climate change is responsible for more than one-fifth of the observed increment of CPD occurrence (22% ± 17%), ranging from 2% to 79% in different provinces. Among the climatic factors considered, warmer nighttime temperatures contribute most to the increasing occurrence of CPDs (11% ± 9%). Projections of future CPDs show that at the end of this century, climate change will lead to an increase in CPD occurrence by 243% ± 110% under a low-emissions scenario (SSP126) and 460% ± 213% under a high-emissions scenario (SSP585), with the magnitude largely dependent on the impacts of warmer nighttime temperatures and decreasing frost days. This observation-based evidence highlights the urgent need to accurately account for the increasing risk of CPDs in mitigating the impacts of climate change on food production.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Nature Food
volume
3
issue
1
pages
57 - 65
publisher
Springer Nature
external identifiers
  • scopus:85120933644
  • pmid:37118481
ISSN
2662-1355
DOI
10.1038/s43016-021-00428-0
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Funding Information: This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42171096). We thank M. He, Q. Liu and L. Jin for their help in preparing the manuscript. T. Pugh acknowledges support from BECC and MERGE. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
id
6d2e4123-09af-4a5e-a303-8ad102219688
date added to LUP
2022-01-11 18:43:32
date last changed
2024-06-17 02:33:24
@article{6d2e4123-09af-4a5e-a303-8ad102219688,
  abstract     = {{<p>Crop pests and diseases (CPDs) are emerging threats to global food security, but trends in the occurrence of pests and diseases remain largely unknown due to the lack of observations for major crop producers. Here, on the basis of a unique historical dataset with more than 5,500 statistical records, we found an increased occurrence of CPDs in every province of China, with the national average rate of CPD occurrence increasing by a factor of four (from 53% to 218%) during 1970–2016. Historical climate change is responsible for more than one-fifth of the observed increment of CPD occurrence (22% ± 17%), ranging from 2% to 79% in different provinces. Among the climatic factors considered, warmer nighttime temperatures contribute most to the increasing occurrence of CPDs (11% ± 9%). Projections of future CPDs show that at the end of this century, climate change will lead to an increase in CPD occurrence by 243% ± 110% under a low-emissions scenario (SSP126) and 460% ± 213% under a high-emissions scenario (SSP585), with the magnitude largely dependent on the impacts of warmer nighttime temperatures and decreasing frost days. This observation-based evidence highlights the urgent need to accurately account for the increasing risk of CPDs in mitigating the impacts of climate change on food production.</p>}},
  author       = {{Wang, Chenzhi and Wang, Xuhui and Jin, Zhenong and Müller, Christoph and Pugh, Thomas A.M. and Chen, Anping and Wang, Tao and Huang, Ling and Zhang, Yuan and Li, Laurent X.Z. and Piao, Shilong}},
  issn         = {{2662-1355}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{1}},
  pages        = {{57--65}},
  publisher    = {{Springer Nature}},
  series       = {{Nature Food}},
  title        = {{Occurrence of crop pests and diseases has largely increased in China since 1970}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00428-0}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s43016-021-00428-0}},
  volume       = {{3}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}