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Land-use and land-cover change carbon emissions between 1901 and 2012 constrained by biomass observations

Li, Wei LU ; Ciais, Philippe ; Peng, Shushi ; Yue, Chao ; Wang, Yilong ; Thurner, Martin ; Saatchi, Sassan S. ; Arneth, Almut LU ; Avitabile, Valerio and Carvalhais, Nuno , et al. (2017) In Biogeosciences 14(22). p.5053-5067
Abstract

The use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to estimate CO2 emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) offers a new window to account for spatial and temporal details of emissions and for ecosystem processes affected by LULCC. One drawback of LULCC emissions from DGVMs, however, is lack of observation constraint. Here, we propose a new method of using satellite- and inventory-based biomass observations to constrain historical cumulative LULCC emissions (ELUCc) from an ensemble of nine DGVMs based on emerging relationships between simulated vegetation biomass and ELUCc. This method is applicable on the global and regional scale. The original DGVM estimates of ELUCc range from 94 to 273PgC during 1901-2012. After... (More)

The use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to estimate CO2 emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) offers a new window to account for spatial and temporal details of emissions and for ecosystem processes affected by LULCC. One drawback of LULCC emissions from DGVMs, however, is lack of observation constraint. Here, we propose a new method of using satellite- and inventory-based biomass observations to constrain historical cumulative LULCC emissions (ELUCc) from an ensemble of nine DGVMs based on emerging relationships between simulated vegetation biomass and ELUCc. This method is applicable on the global and regional scale. The original DGVM estimates of ELUCc range from 94 to 273PgC during 1901-2012. After constraining by current biomass observations, we derive a best estimate of 155±50PgC (1σ Gaussian error). The constrained LULCC emissions are higher than prior DGVM values in tropical regions but significantly lower in North America. Our emergent constraint approach independently verifies the median model estimate by biomass observations, giving support to the use of this estimate in carbon budget assessments. The uncertainty in the constrained ELUCc is still relatively large because of the uncertainty in the biomass observations, and thus reduced uncertainty in addition to increased accuracy in biomass observations in the future will help improve the constraint. This constraint method can also be applied to evaluate the impact of land-based mitigation activities.

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publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Biogeosciences
volume
14
issue
22
pages
15 pages
publisher
Copernicus GmbH
external identifiers
  • scopus:85034055468
ISSN
1726-4170
DOI
10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017
language
English
LU publication?
no
id
72722850-52d4-4aaa-85e2-750d5338279d
date added to LUP
2020-11-19 23:06:03
date last changed
2022-04-19 02:08:52
@article{72722850-52d4-4aaa-85e2-750d5338279d,
  abstract     = {{<p>The use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to estimate CO2 emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) offers a new window to account for spatial and temporal details of emissions and for ecosystem processes affected by LULCC. One drawback of LULCC emissions from DGVMs, however, is lack of observation constraint. Here, we propose a new method of using satellite- and inventory-based biomass observations to constrain historical cumulative LULCC emissions (ELUCc) from an ensemble of nine DGVMs based on emerging relationships between simulated vegetation biomass and ELUCc. This method is applicable on the global and regional scale. The original DGVM estimates of ELUCc range from 94 to 273PgC during 1901-2012. After constraining by current biomass observations, we derive a best estimate of 155±50PgC (1σ Gaussian error). The constrained LULCC emissions are higher than prior DGVM values in tropical regions but significantly lower in North America. Our emergent constraint approach independently verifies the median model estimate by biomass observations, giving support to the use of this estimate in carbon budget assessments. The uncertainty in the constrained ELUCc is still relatively large because of the uncertainty in the biomass observations, and thus reduced uncertainty in addition to increased accuracy in biomass observations in the future will help improve the constraint. This constraint method can also be applied to evaluate the impact of land-based mitigation activities.</p>}},
  author       = {{Li, Wei and Ciais, Philippe and Peng, Shushi and Yue, Chao and Wang, Yilong and Thurner, Martin and Saatchi, Sassan S. and Arneth, Almut and Avitabile, Valerio and Carvalhais, Nuno and Harper, Anna B. and Kato, Etsushi and Koven, Charles and Liu, Yi Y. and Nabel, Julia E.M.S. and Pan, Yude and Pongratz, Julia and Poulter, Benjamin and Pugh, Thomas A.M. and Santoro, Maurizio and Sitch, Stephen and Stocker, Benjamin D. and Viovy, Nicolas and Wiltshire, Andy and Yousefpour, Rasoul and Zaehle, Sönke}},
  issn         = {{1726-4170}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{11}},
  number       = {{22}},
  pages        = {{5053--5067}},
  publisher    = {{Copernicus GmbH}},
  series       = {{Biogeosciences}},
  title        = {{Land-use and land-cover change carbon emissions between 1901 and 2012 constrained by biomass observations}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017}},
  doi          = {{10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017}},
  volume       = {{14}},
  year         = {{2017}},
}