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Disentangling the effects of land-use change, climate and CO2 on projected future European habitat types

Lehsten, Veiko LU ; Sykes, Martin LU ; Scott, Anna Victoria; Tzanopoulos, Joseph; Kallimanis, Athanasios; Mazaris, Antonios; Verburg, Peter H.; Schulp, Catharina J. E.; Potts, Simon G. and Vogiatzakis, Ioannis (2015) In Global Ecology and Biogeography 24(6). p.653-663
Abstract
AimTo project the potential European distribution of seven broad habitat categories (needle-leaved, broad-leaved, mixed and mediterranean forest, urban, grassland and cropland) in order to assess effects of land use, climate change and increase in CO2 on predicted habitat changes up to the year 2050. LocationEurope. MethodWe modelled the response of European vegetation to changes in land use, climate and CO2 by combining the land-use model Dyna-CLUE (based on the CORINE land-cover data) and the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Two reforestation options were explored: maintaining the current range of tree species (EFI) or promoting naturally occurring tree species (NAT). Climate data from two general circulation models and two SRES... (More)
AimTo project the potential European distribution of seven broad habitat categories (needle-leaved, broad-leaved, mixed and mediterranean forest, urban, grassland and cropland) in order to assess effects of land use, climate change and increase in CO2 on predicted habitat changes up to the year 2050. LocationEurope. MethodWe modelled the response of European vegetation to changes in land use, climate and CO2 by combining the land-use model Dyna-CLUE (based on the CORINE land-cover data) and the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Two reforestation options were explored: maintaining the current range of tree species (EFI) or promoting naturally occurring tree species (NAT). Climate data from two general circulation models and two SRES scenarios (A2 and B1) were used. The broad habitat types were classified according to a combination of land use and the dominant plant species. ResultsOur models predicted that croplands and grasslands are expected to decrease due to land-use change. Although climate change has a negative effect on needle-leaved forest, it is expected to maintain its area or even increase in the EFI reforestation option while mediterranean, broad-leaved and mixed forests are expected to increase markedly. All investigated drivers have shown some effect, but land use is the dominant contributor to broad habitat change except for needle-leaved and mixed which are mainly influenced by climate change. Main conclusionsLand use is predicted to have the greatest effect on broad habitat distribution according to our simulations. Hence in most parts of Europe mitigating actions should focus on land-use change rather than climate change. According to our simulation, the effects of the different drivers are not in general additive. In some cases they act synergistically and in some cases antagonistically. The projected habitat changes are a valuable tool for species distribution modelling and are available online. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Climate change, CO2 increase, CORINE, Dyna-CLUE, dynamic vegetation, model, habitat projection, land use, LPJ-GUESS
in
Global Ecology and Biogeography
volume
24
issue
6
pages
653 - 663
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • wos:000354121600005
  • scopus:84929031198
ISSN
1466-8238
DOI
10.1111/geb.12291
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
b507db34-bf8b-4ff6-ac27-45a664942685 (old id 7425170)
date added to LUP
2015-06-25 15:11:07
date last changed
2017-09-03 03:30:52
@article{b507db34-bf8b-4ff6-ac27-45a664942685,
  abstract     = {AimTo project the potential European distribution of seven broad habitat categories (needle-leaved, broad-leaved, mixed and mediterranean forest, urban, grassland and cropland) in order to assess effects of land use, climate change and increase in CO2 on predicted habitat changes up to the year 2050. LocationEurope. MethodWe modelled the response of European vegetation to changes in land use, climate and CO2 by combining the land-use model Dyna-CLUE (based on the CORINE land-cover data) and the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Two reforestation options were explored: maintaining the current range of tree species (EFI) or promoting naturally occurring tree species (NAT). Climate data from two general circulation models and two SRES scenarios (A2 and B1) were used. The broad habitat types were classified according to a combination of land use and the dominant plant species. ResultsOur models predicted that croplands and grasslands are expected to decrease due to land-use change. Although climate change has a negative effect on needle-leaved forest, it is expected to maintain its area or even increase in the EFI reforestation option while mediterranean, broad-leaved and mixed forests are expected to increase markedly. All investigated drivers have shown some effect, but land use is the dominant contributor to broad habitat change except for needle-leaved and mixed which are mainly influenced by climate change. Main conclusionsLand use is predicted to have the greatest effect on broad habitat distribution according to our simulations. Hence in most parts of Europe mitigating actions should focus on land-use change rather than climate change. According to our simulation, the effects of the different drivers are not in general additive. In some cases they act synergistically and in some cases antagonistically. The projected habitat changes are a valuable tool for species distribution modelling and are available online.},
  author       = {Lehsten, Veiko and Sykes, Martin and Scott, Anna Victoria and Tzanopoulos, Joseph and Kallimanis, Athanasios and Mazaris, Antonios and Verburg, Peter H. and Schulp, Catharina J. E. and Potts, Simon G. and Vogiatzakis, Ioannis},
  issn         = {1466-8238},
  keyword      = {Climate change,CO2 increase,CORINE,Dyna-CLUE,dynamic vegetation,model,habitat projection,land use,LPJ-GUESS},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {6},
  pages        = {653--663},
  publisher    = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  series       = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},
  title        = {Disentangling the effects of land-use change, climate and CO2 on projected future European habitat types},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/geb.12291},
  volume       = {24},
  year         = {2015},
}