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Linking phenological shifts to demographic change

Ramula, Satu LU ; Johansson, Jacob LU ; Linden, Andreas and Jonzén, Niclas LU (2015) In Climate Research 63(2). p.135-144
Abstract
Climate-induced phenological shifts may have serious consequences for organisms and populations, but it is challenging to link such shifts to demographic change. Here, we present an overview of current methodological approaches for studying the demographic consequences of phenological shifts, based on a literature survey of 62 studies on diverse taxa. The majority of these studies (66%) were conducted using an approach that linked phenological shifts to demography through the measurement of vital rates (survival, growth, and fecundity). About 18% of the studies used a population-based approach that linked the phenological shifts to changes in population size, and 16% took a combined approach by considering changes in both vital rates and... (More)
Climate-induced phenological shifts may have serious consequences for organisms and populations, but it is challenging to link such shifts to demographic change. Here, we present an overview of current methodological approaches for studying the demographic consequences of phenological shifts, based on a literature survey of 62 studies on diverse taxa. The majority of these studies (66%) were conducted using an approach that linked phenological shifts to demography through the measurement of vital rates (survival, growth, and fecundity). About 18% of the studies used a population-based approach that linked the phenological shifts to changes in population size, and 16% took a combined approach by considering changes in both vital rates and population size. Birds and mammals were overrepresented in studies of the demographic consequences of phenological shifts, compared to their occurrence in nature, while insects were heavily underrepresented. The effects of phenological shifts often varied according to the particular vital rate under consideration, in many cases even within a single species. In the few studies that examined changes in phenology together with both vital rate and population data, the changes in vital rates did not always predict changes in population size. To better understand the ultimate causes of population-level effects we argue that further study is needed on density-dependent aspects of population dynamics and on the sensitivity of population dynamics to perturbations in vital rates. We encourage re searchers to observe multiple vital rates throughout organisms' life-cycles in order to enable more meaningful examination of the consequences of phenological shifts for population dynamics. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Climate change, Demography, Fitness, Phenology, Population dynamics, Population size, Timing, Vital rates
in
Climate Research
volume
63
issue
2
pages
135 - 144
publisher
Inter-Research
external identifiers
  • wos:000353914000004
  • scopus:84928323973
ISSN
1616-1572
DOI
10.3354/cr01289
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
ab849ae7-7fcb-44d4-8009-76536c6b59e9 (old id 7432805)
date added to LUP
2015-06-25 08:29:27
date last changed
2017-03-10 11:01:50
@article{ab849ae7-7fcb-44d4-8009-76536c6b59e9,
  abstract     = {Climate-induced phenological shifts may have serious consequences for organisms and populations, but it is challenging to link such shifts to demographic change. Here, we present an overview of current methodological approaches for studying the demographic consequences of phenological shifts, based on a literature survey of 62 studies on diverse taxa. The majority of these studies (66%) were conducted using an approach that linked phenological shifts to demography through the measurement of vital rates (survival, growth, and fecundity). About 18% of the studies used a population-based approach that linked the phenological shifts to changes in population size, and 16% took a combined approach by considering changes in both vital rates and population size. Birds and mammals were overrepresented in studies of the demographic consequences of phenological shifts, compared to their occurrence in nature, while insects were heavily underrepresented. The effects of phenological shifts often varied according to the particular vital rate under consideration, in many cases even within a single species. In the few studies that examined changes in phenology together with both vital rate and population data, the changes in vital rates did not always predict changes in population size. To better understand the ultimate causes of population-level effects we argue that further study is needed on density-dependent aspects of population dynamics and on the sensitivity of population dynamics to perturbations in vital rates. We encourage re searchers to observe multiple vital rates throughout organisms' life-cycles in order to enable more meaningful examination of the consequences of phenological shifts for population dynamics.},
  author       = {Ramula, Satu and Johansson, Jacob and Linden, Andreas and Jonzén, Niclas},
  issn         = {1616-1572},
  keyword      = {Climate change,Demography,Fitness,Phenology,Population dynamics,Population size,Timing,Vital rates},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {2},
  pages        = {135--144},
  publisher    = {Inter-Research},
  series       = {Climate Research},
  title        = {Linking phenological shifts to demographic change},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01289},
  volume       = {63},
  year         = {2015},
}