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Forecasting fish stock dynamics under climate change: Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) as a case study

Bartolino, V.; Margonski, P.; Lindegren, M.; Linderholm, Hans; Cardinale, M.; Rayner, D.P.; Wennhage, H. and Casini, M. (2014) In Fisheries Oceanography 23(3). p.258-269
Abstract
Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios of fisheries exploitation and climate change on the temporal dynamics of the central Baltic herring stock. Alternative scenarios of increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing salinity of the Baltic Sea from a global climate model were combined with two alternative fishing scenarios, and their direct and ecosystem-mediated effects (i.e., through predation by cod and competition with sprat) on the herring population were evaluated for the period... (More)
Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios of fisheries exploitation and climate change on the temporal dynamics of the central Baltic herring stock. Alternative scenarios of increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing salinity of the Baltic Sea from a global climate model were combined with two alternative fishing scenarios, and their direct and ecosystem-mediated effects (i.e., through predation by cod and competition with sprat) on the herring population were evaluated for the period 2010-2050. Gradual increase in temperature has a positive impact on the long-term productivity of the herring stock, but it has the potential to enhance the recovery of the herring stock only in combination with sustainable fisheries management (i.e., F-msy). Conversely, projections of herring spawning stock biomass (SSB) were generally low under elevated fishing mortality levels (F-high), comparable with those experienced by the stock during the 1990s. Under the combined effects of long-term warming and high fishing mortality uncertainty in herring SSB projections was higher and increasing for the duration of the forecasts, suggesting a synergistic effect of fishery exploitation and climate forcing on fish populations dynamics. Our study shows that simulations of long-term fish dynamics can be an informative tool to derive expectations of the potential long-term impact of alternative future scenarios of exploitation and climate change. (Less)
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author
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
VARIABILITY, COD, RECRUITMENT, SEA, SPAWNING STOCK, TROPHIC CASCADES, MARINE ECOSYSTEM, LATE 21ST-CENTURY, POPULATION-GROWTH, REGIME SHIFTS, fishery exploitation scenarios, long-term projections, herring recruitment, climate change, Baltic Sea
in
Fisheries Oceanography
volume
23
issue
3
pages
258 - 269
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • scopus:84898058235
ISSN
1365-2419
DOI
10.1111/fog.12060
project
MERGE
language
English
LU publication?
no
id
0f999b9a-24fa-4ef9-8bbb-e8b21f4e662a (old id 7515585)
date added to LUP
2015-07-08 14:46:58
date last changed
2017-08-13 04:35:02
@article{0f999b9a-24fa-4ef9-8bbb-e8b21f4e662a,
  abstract     = {Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios of fisheries exploitation and climate change on the temporal dynamics of the central Baltic herring stock. Alternative scenarios of increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing salinity of the Baltic Sea from a global climate model were combined with two alternative fishing scenarios, and their direct and ecosystem-mediated effects (i.e., through predation by cod and competition with sprat) on the herring population were evaluated for the period 2010-2050. Gradual increase in temperature has a positive impact on the long-term productivity of the herring stock, but it has the potential to enhance the recovery of the herring stock only in combination with sustainable fisheries management (i.e., F-msy). Conversely, projections of herring spawning stock biomass (SSB) were generally low under elevated fishing mortality levels (F-high), comparable with those experienced by the stock during the 1990s. Under the combined effects of long-term warming and high fishing mortality uncertainty in herring SSB projections was higher and increasing for the duration of the forecasts, suggesting a synergistic effect of fishery exploitation and climate forcing on fish populations dynamics. Our study shows that simulations of long-term fish dynamics can be an informative tool to derive expectations of the potential long-term impact of alternative future scenarios of exploitation and climate change.},
  author       = {Bartolino, V. and Margonski, P. and Lindegren, M. and Linderholm, Hans and Cardinale, M. and Rayner, D.P. and Wennhage, H. and Casini, M.},
  issn         = {1365-2419},
  keyword      = {VARIABILITY,COD,RECRUITMENT,SEA,SPAWNING STOCK,TROPHIC CASCADES,MARINE ECOSYSTEM,LATE 21ST-CENTURY,POPULATION-GROWTH,REGIME SHIFTS,fishery exploitation scenarios,long-term projections,herring recruitment,climate change,Baltic Sea},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {3},
  pages        = {258--269},
  publisher    = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  series       = {Fisheries Oceanography},
  title        = {Forecasting fish stock dynamics under climate change: Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) as a case study},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/fog.12060},
  volume       = {23},
  year         = {2014},
}