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Projecting streamflow in the Tangwang River basin (China) using a rainfall generator and two hydrological models

Liu, W. B.; Zhang, A. J.; Wang, L.; Fu, G. B.; Chen, Deliang; Liu, C. M. and Cai, T. J. (2014) In Climate Research 62(2). p.79-97
Abstract
To estimate the impacts of future climate change on streamflow in the Tangwang River basin (TRB) in northeastern China, 2 hydrological models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and the Hydro-Informatic Modeling System, were used. These models are driven by future (2021-2050) local rainfall and temperature scenarios downscaled from global climate model (GCM) simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project under 2 emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5 and RCP8.5). The downscaling of rainfall is done with the help of a multisite stochastic rainfall generator (MSRG), which extends the 'Richardson type' rainfall generator to a multisite approach using a modified series-independent and... (More)
To estimate the impacts of future climate change on streamflow in the Tangwang River basin (TRB) in northeastern China, 2 hydrological models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and the Hydro-Informatic Modeling System, were used. These models are driven by future (2021-2050) local rainfall and temperature scenarios downscaled from global climate model (GCM) simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project under 2 emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5 and RCP8.5). The downscaling of rainfall is done with the help of a multisite stochastic rainfall generator (MSRG), which extends the 'Richardson type' rainfall generator to a multisite approach using a modified series-independent and spatial-correlated random numbers method by linking its 4 parameters to large-scale circulations using least-squares regressions. An independent validation of the MSRG shows that it successfully preserves the major daily rainfall characteristics for wet and dry seasons. Relative to the reference period (1971-2000), the annual and wet season (April to October) streamflow during the future period (2021-2050) would decrease overall, which indicates that water resources and the potential flood risk would decline in the TRB. The slightly increased dry season (November to March) streamflow would, to some extent, contribute to the 'spring drought' over this region. Although rainfall is projected to remain un changed in the wet season and the whole year, the increased total evapotranspiration due to the increase in temperature would lead to a decline in total streamflow for this basin. The projected streamflow changes from multiple GCMs in this paper could provide a glimpse into a very plausible future for the water resource management community, and would hence provide valuable references for the sustainable management of water and forest ecosystems under a changing climate. (Less)
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author
publishing date
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Contribution to journal
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published
subject
keywords
Multisite stochastic rainfall generator, Statistical downscaling, CMIP5, Soil and Water Assessment, CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS, STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODELS, DAILY, PRECIPITATION, NORTHEAST CHINA, VARIABILITY, RUNOFF, FREQUENCY, INTENSITY, TRENDS, PLAIN, Environmental Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
in
Climate Research
volume
62
issue
2
pages
79 - 97
publisher
Inter-Research
external identifiers
  • scopus:84920946593
ISSN
1616-1572
DOI
10.3354/cr01261
project
MERGE
language
English
LU publication?
no
id
750d81d2-2e1f-4938-97aa-a6275b33a603 (old id 7515709)
date added to LUP
2015-07-08 14:41:42
date last changed
2017-10-22 04:51:13
@article{750d81d2-2e1f-4938-97aa-a6275b33a603,
  abstract     = {To estimate the impacts of future climate change on streamflow in the Tangwang River basin (TRB) in northeastern China, 2 hydrological models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and the Hydro-Informatic Modeling System, were used. These models are driven by future (2021-2050) local rainfall and temperature scenarios downscaled from global climate model (GCM) simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project under 2 emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5 and RCP8.5). The downscaling of rainfall is done with the help of a multisite stochastic rainfall generator (MSRG), which extends the 'Richardson type' rainfall generator to a multisite approach using a modified series-independent and spatial-correlated random numbers method by linking its 4 parameters to large-scale circulations using least-squares regressions. An independent validation of the MSRG shows that it successfully preserves the major daily rainfall characteristics for wet and dry seasons. Relative to the reference period (1971-2000), the annual and wet season (April to October) streamflow during the future period (2021-2050) would decrease overall, which indicates that water resources and the potential flood risk would decline in the TRB. The slightly increased dry season (November to March) streamflow would, to some extent, contribute to the 'spring drought' over this region. Although rainfall is projected to remain un changed in the wet season and the whole year, the increased total evapotranspiration due to the increase in temperature would lead to a decline in total streamflow for this basin. The projected streamflow changes from multiple GCMs in this paper could provide a glimpse into a very plausible future for the water resource management community, and would hence provide valuable references for the sustainable management of water and forest ecosystems under a changing climate.},
  author       = {Liu, W. B. and Zhang, A. J. and Wang, L. and Fu, G. B. and Chen, Deliang and Liu, C. M. and Cai, T. J.},
  issn         = {1616-1572},
  keyword      = {Multisite stochastic rainfall generator,Statistical downscaling,CMIP5,Soil and Water Assessment,CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS,STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODELS,DAILY,PRECIPITATION,NORTHEAST CHINA,VARIABILITY,RUNOFF,FREQUENCY,INTENSITY,TRENDS,PLAIN,Environmental Sciences,Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {2},
  pages        = {79--97},
  publisher    = {Inter-Research},
  series       = {Climate Research},
  title        = {Projecting streamflow in the Tangwang River basin (China) using a rainfall generator and two hydrological models},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01261},
  volume       = {62},
  year         = {2014},
}