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Possible future changes in cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal, India under warmer climate

Sarthi, P. Parth; Agrawal, Anubha and Rana, Arun LU (2015) In International Journal of Climatology 35(7). p.1267-1277
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to study the model's simulated frequency, track, intensity and location of cyclonic storms (CSs) and severe cyclonic storms (SCSs) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), India. For the purpose, the PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) a regional climate modelling system, of UK Met Office, is used. This model is integrated for the period 1961-1990 (baseline) and the future time period 2071-2100 (High emission scenario, A2). To run the model, the initial and lateral boundary conditions are supplied by UK Met Office. The analysis of frequency, track, intensity and location are carried out for May, June, September and October for the period 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. To evaluate the model's performance in... (More)
The aim of this paper is to study the model's simulated frequency, track, intensity and location of cyclonic storms (CSs) and severe cyclonic storms (SCSs) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), India. For the purpose, the PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) a regional climate modelling system, of UK Met Office, is used. This model is integrated for the period 1961-1990 (baseline) and the future time period 2071-2100 (High emission scenario, A2). To run the model, the initial and lateral boundary conditions are supplied by UK Met Office. The analysis of frequency, track, intensity and location are carried out for May, June, September and October for the period 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. To evaluate the model's performance in simulating storms frequency during 1961-1990, chi square test is carried out with observed storms for the same period. The model's simulated frequency of storms is an overestimation of observations although the frequency of model's simulated storms during 2071-2100 is less than that of during 1961-1990. In general, model's simulated storms are found moving in the northwest direction from their initial location in all months during 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. In model's simulations, the drop in central pressure is relatively more in the months of May, June, September and October during 2071-2100 compared with that during 1961-1990. During 2071-2100, more intense storms may be possible in the months of May and June compared with that of September and October. It is observed that the model is able to simulate the initial locations of storms during 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 close to observations for the months of June and September, especially. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
PRECIS, Storm, Bay of Bengal, High emission scenario A2
in
International Journal of Climatology
volume
35
issue
7
pages
1267 - 1277
publisher
John Wiley & Sons
external identifiers
  • wos:000355953600007
  • scopus:84930381259
ISSN
1097-0088
DOI
10.1002/joc.4053
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
4622c0d4-c5d2-4054-b7c0-7b8364e85a53 (old id 7600723)
date added to LUP
2015-07-23 12:54:35
date last changed
2017-09-10 03:28:56
@article{4622c0d4-c5d2-4054-b7c0-7b8364e85a53,
  abstract     = {The aim of this paper is to study the model's simulated frequency, track, intensity and location of cyclonic storms (CSs) and severe cyclonic storms (SCSs) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), India. For the purpose, the PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) a regional climate modelling system, of UK Met Office, is used. This model is integrated for the period 1961-1990 (baseline) and the future time period 2071-2100 (High emission scenario, A2). To run the model, the initial and lateral boundary conditions are supplied by UK Met Office. The analysis of frequency, track, intensity and location are carried out for May, June, September and October for the period 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. To evaluate the model's performance in simulating storms frequency during 1961-1990, chi square test is carried out with observed storms for the same period. The model's simulated frequency of storms is an overestimation of observations although the frequency of model's simulated storms during 2071-2100 is less than that of during 1961-1990. In general, model's simulated storms are found moving in the northwest direction from their initial location in all months during 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. In model's simulations, the drop in central pressure is relatively more in the months of May, June, September and October during 2071-2100 compared with that during 1961-1990. During 2071-2100, more intense storms may be possible in the months of May and June compared with that of September and October. It is observed that the model is able to simulate the initial locations of storms during 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 close to observations for the months of June and September, especially.},
  author       = {Sarthi, P. Parth and Agrawal, Anubha and Rana, Arun},
  issn         = {1097-0088},
  keyword      = {PRECIS,Storm,Bay of Bengal,High emission scenario A2},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {7},
  pages        = {1267--1277},
  publisher    = {John Wiley & Sons},
  series       = {International Journal of Climatology},
  title        = {Possible future changes in cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal, India under warmer climate},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4053},
  volume       = {35},
  year         = {2015},
}