Have climate policies accelerated energy transitions? Historical evolution of electricity mix in the G7 and the EU compared to net-zero targets
(2023) In Energy Research and Social Science 106.- Abstract
Climate policies are often assumed to have significant impacts on the nature and speed of energy transitions. To investigate this hypothesis, we develop an approach to categorise, trace, and compare energy transitions across countries and time periods. We apply this approach to analyse electricity transitions in the G7 and the EU between 1960 and 2022, specifically examining whether and how climate policies altered the transitions beyond historical trends. Additionally, we conduct a feasibility analysis of the required transition in these countries by 2035 to keep the global temperature increase below 1.5°C. We find that climate policies have so far had limited impacts: while they may have influenced the choice of deployed technologies... (More)
Climate policies are often assumed to have significant impacts on the nature and speed of energy transitions. To investigate this hypothesis, we develop an approach to categorise, trace, and compare energy transitions across countries and time periods. We apply this approach to analyse electricity transitions in the G7 and the EU between 1960 and 2022, specifically examining whether and how climate policies altered the transitions beyond historical trends. Additionally, we conduct a feasibility analysis of the required transition in these countries by 2035 to keep the global temperature increase below 1.5°C. We find that climate policies have so far had limited impacts: while they may have influenced the choice of deployed technologies and the type of transitions, they have not accelerated the growth of low-carbon technologies or hastened the decline of fossil fuels. Instead, electricity transitions in the G7 and the EU have strongly correlated with the changes in electricity demand throughout the last six decades. In contrast, meeting the 1.5°C target requires unprecedented supply-centred transitions by 2035 where all G7 countries and the EU must expand low-carbon electricity five times faster and reduce fossil fuels two times faster on average compared to the rates in 2015–2020. This highlights the insufficiency of incremental changes and the need for a radically stronger effort to meet the climate target.
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- author
- Suzuki, Masahiro ; Jewell, Jessica and Cherp, Aleh LU
- publishing date
- 2023-12
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- keywords
- Climate policy, Comparative analysis, Energy transitions, EU, Feasibility, G7
- in
- Energy Research and Social Science
- volume
- 106
- article number
- 103281
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85176452474
- ISSN
- 2214-6296
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.erss.2023.103281
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- no
- additional info
- Funding Information: This work was supported by the PhD scholarship and supplementary grants from Central European University. In addition, M.S. and A.C. received support from the ENGAGE project (no. 821471) funded by the European Comission's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, and J.J. from the MANIFEST project (no. 950408) funded by the European Comission's Horizon 2020 ERC Starting Grant. We would like to thank Vadim Vinichenko for his support in data preparation. We would also like to thank Takeshi Kuramochi, Leonardo Nascimento, Aman Gill-Lang, Laima Eicke, and members of the POLET network (www.polet.network) for comments on the earlier drafts of the paper. We also appreciate the support of Ágnes Diós-Tóth in refining the writing style of the paper. Finally, we would like to thank the three anonymous reviewers and the editorial team for their valuable feedback and support. Funding Information: This work was supported by the PhD scholarship and supplementary grants from Central European University . In addition, M.S. and A.C. received support from the ENGAGE project (no. 821471 ) funded by the European Comission's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme , and J.J. from the MANIFEST project (no. 950408 ) funded by the European Comission's Horizon 2020 ERC Starting Grant. We would like to thank Vadim Vinichenko for his support in data preparation. We would also like to thank Takeshi Kuramochi, Leonardo Nascimento, Aman Gill-Lang, Laima Eicke, and members of the POLET network ( www.polet.network ) for comments on the earlier drafts of the paper. We also appreciate the support of Ágnes Diós-Tóth in refining the writing style of the paper. Finally, we would like to thank the three anonymous reviewers and the editorial team for their valuable feedback and support. Publisher Copyright: © 2023
- id
- 76e1f5a2-e96e-4b63-aa59-896197fd6560
- date added to LUP
- 2023-11-25 10:17:55
- date last changed
- 2023-11-30 10:55:00
@article{76e1f5a2-e96e-4b63-aa59-896197fd6560,
abstract = {{<p>Climate policies are often assumed to have significant impacts on the nature and speed of energy transitions. To investigate this hypothesis, we develop an approach to categorise, trace, and compare energy transitions across countries and time periods. We apply this approach to analyse electricity transitions in the G7 and the EU between 1960 and 2022, specifically examining whether and how climate policies altered the transitions beyond historical trends. Additionally, we conduct a feasibility analysis of the required transition in these countries by 2035 to keep the global temperature increase below 1.5°C. We find that climate policies have so far had limited impacts: while they may have influenced the choice of deployed technologies and the type of transitions, they have not accelerated the growth of low-carbon technologies or hastened the decline of fossil fuels. Instead, electricity transitions in the G7 and the EU have strongly correlated with the changes in electricity demand throughout the last six decades. In contrast, meeting the 1.5°C target requires unprecedented supply-centred transitions by 2035 where all G7 countries and the EU must expand low-carbon electricity five times faster and reduce fossil fuels two times faster on average compared to the rates in 2015–2020. This highlights the insufficiency of incremental changes and the need for a radically stronger effort to meet the climate target.</p>}},
author = {{Suzuki, Masahiro and Jewell, Jessica and Cherp, Aleh}},
issn = {{2214-6296}},
keywords = {{Climate policy; Comparative analysis; Energy transitions; EU; Feasibility; G7}},
language = {{eng}},
publisher = {{Elsevier}},
series = {{Energy Research and Social Science}},
title = {{Have climate policies accelerated energy transitions? Historical evolution of electricity mix in the G7 and the EU compared to net-zero targets}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2023.103281}},
doi = {{10.1016/j.erss.2023.103281}},
volume = {{106}},
year = {{2023}},
}