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Are democratic sanctions really counterproductive?

Wahman, Michael LU and von Soest, Christian (2015) In Democratization 22(6). p.957-980
Abstract
Previous research has shown that sanctions have a negative impact on the level of democracy in targeted authoritarian countries. This runs counter to substantive comparative literature on democratization which finds that economic stress is connected with regime collapse and democratic liberalization. To solve this puzzle, we focus on the effects of “democratic sanctions” (those that explicitly aim to promote democracy) which have become the most common type of sanction issued against authoritarian states. We introduce a new data set of imposed sanctions in the period 1990–2010 that clearly separates sanctions according to the explicit goal of the sender. Our cross-sectional time-series analysis demonstrates that although sanctions as a... (More)
Previous research has shown that sanctions have a negative impact on the level of democracy in targeted authoritarian countries. This runs counter to substantive comparative literature on democratization which finds that economic stress is connected with regime collapse and democratic liberalization. To solve this puzzle, we focus on the effects of “democratic sanctions” (those that explicitly aim to promote democracy) which have become the most common type of sanction issued against authoritarian states. We introduce a new data set of imposed sanctions in the period 1990–2010 that clearly separates sanctions according to the explicit goal of the sender. Our cross-sectional time-series analysis demonstrates that although sanctions as a whole do not generally increase the level of democracy, there is in fact a significant correlation between democratic sanctions and increased levels of democracy in targeted authoritarian countries. A fundamental mechanism leading to this outcome is the increased instability of authoritarian rule as democratic sanctions are significantly associated with a higher probability of regime and leadership change. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
regime change, ruler exit, persistence, democratization, authoritarianism, sanctions
in
Democratization
volume
22
issue
6
pages
957 - 980
publisher
Taylor & Francis
external identifiers
  • scopus:84938748709
ISSN
1351-0347
DOI
10.1080/13510347.2014.888418
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
f62a4f11-a181-46ab-b681-a305a731fabe (old id 7762318)
date added to LUP
2015-08-18 10:52:50
date last changed
2017-10-22 04:13:50
@article{f62a4f11-a181-46ab-b681-a305a731fabe,
  abstract     = {Previous research has shown that sanctions have a negative impact on the level of democracy in targeted authoritarian countries. This runs counter to substantive comparative literature on democratization which finds that economic stress is connected with regime collapse and democratic liberalization. To solve this puzzle, we focus on the effects of “democratic sanctions” (those that explicitly aim to promote democracy) which have become the most common type of sanction issued against authoritarian states. We introduce a new data set of imposed sanctions in the period 1990–2010 that clearly separates sanctions according to the explicit goal of the sender. Our cross-sectional time-series analysis demonstrates that although sanctions as a whole do not generally increase the level of democracy, there is in fact a significant correlation between democratic sanctions and increased levels of democracy in targeted authoritarian countries. A fundamental mechanism leading to this outcome is the increased instability of authoritarian rule as democratic sanctions are significantly associated with a higher probability of regime and leadership change.},
  author       = {Wahman, Michael and von Soest, Christian},
  issn         = {1351-0347},
  keyword      = {regime change,ruler exit,persistence,democratization,authoritarianism,sanctions},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {6},
  pages        = {957--980},
  publisher    = {Taylor & Francis},
  series       = {Democratization},
  title        = {Are democratic sanctions really counterproductive?},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2014.888418},
  volume       = {22},
  year         = {2015},
}