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Historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden

Nemes, Szilard; Rolfson, Ola; W-Dahl, Annette LU ; Garellick, Goran; Sundberg, Martin LU ; Karrholm, Johan and Robertsson, Otto LU (2015) In Acta Orthopaedica 86(4). p.426-431
Abstract
Background and purpose - The incidence of knee osteoarthritis will most likely increase. We analyzed historical trends in the incidence of knee arthroplasty in Sweden between 1975 and 2013, in order to be able to provide projections of future demand. Patients and methods - We obtained information on all knee arthroplasties in Sweden in the period 1975-2013 from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register, and used public domain data from Statistics Sweden on the evolution of and forecasts for the Swedish population. We forecast the incidence, presuming the existence of a maximum incidence. Results - We found that the incidence of knee arthroplasty will continue to increase until a projected upper incidence level of about 469 total knee... (More)
Background and purpose - The incidence of knee osteoarthritis will most likely increase. We analyzed historical trends in the incidence of knee arthroplasty in Sweden between 1975 and 2013, in order to be able to provide projections of future demand. Patients and methods - We obtained information on all knee arthroplasties in Sweden in the period 1975-2013 from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register, and used public domain data from Statistics Sweden on the evolution of and forecasts for the Swedish population. We forecast the incidence, presuming the existence of a maximum incidence. Results - We found that the incidence of knee arthroplasty will continue to increase until a projected upper incidence level of about 469 total knee replacements per 10(5) Swedish residents aged 40 years and older is reached around the year 2130. In 2020, the estimated incidence of total knee arthroplasties per 10(5) Swedish residents aged 40 years and older will be 334 (95% prediction interval (PI): 281-374) and in 2030 it will be 382 (PI: 308-441). Using officially forecast population growth data, around 17,500 operations would be expected to be performed in 2020 and around 21,700 would be expected to be performed in 2030. Interpretation - Today's levels of knee arthroplasty are well below the expected maximum incidence, and we expect a continued annual increase in the total number of knee arthroplasties performed. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Acta Orthopaedica
volume
86
issue
4
pages
426 - 431
publisher
Taylor & Francis
external identifiers
  • wos:000359106700006
  • scopus:84937878430
ISSN
1745-3682
DOI
10.3109/17453674.2015.1034608
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
77e1d214-9c35-4660-adeb-108633628fcf (old id 7978742)
date added to LUP
2015-10-01 07:34:35
date last changed
2017-11-05 04:04:20
@article{77e1d214-9c35-4660-adeb-108633628fcf,
  abstract     = {Background and purpose - The incidence of knee osteoarthritis will most likely increase. We analyzed historical trends in the incidence of knee arthroplasty in Sweden between 1975 and 2013, in order to be able to provide projections of future demand. Patients and methods - We obtained information on all knee arthroplasties in Sweden in the period 1975-2013 from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register, and used public domain data from Statistics Sweden on the evolution of and forecasts for the Swedish population. We forecast the incidence, presuming the existence of a maximum incidence. Results - We found that the incidence of knee arthroplasty will continue to increase until a projected upper incidence level of about 469 total knee replacements per 10(5) Swedish residents aged 40 years and older is reached around the year 2130. In 2020, the estimated incidence of total knee arthroplasties per 10(5) Swedish residents aged 40 years and older will be 334 (95% prediction interval (PI): 281-374) and in 2030 it will be 382 (PI: 308-441). Using officially forecast population growth data, around 17,500 operations would be expected to be performed in 2020 and around 21,700 would be expected to be performed in 2030. Interpretation - Today's levels of knee arthroplasty are well below the expected maximum incidence, and we expect a continued annual increase in the total number of knee arthroplasties performed.},
  author       = {Nemes, Szilard and Rolfson, Ola and W-Dahl, Annette and Garellick, Goran and Sundberg, Martin and Karrholm, Johan and Robertsson, Otto},
  issn         = {1745-3682},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {4},
  pages        = {426--431},
  publisher    = {Taylor & Francis},
  series       = {Acta Orthopaedica},
  title        = {Historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3109/17453674.2015.1034608},
  volume       = {86},
  year         = {2015},
}