Climate change projections of terrestrial primary productivity over the Hindu Kush Himalayan forests
Usman, Halima ; Pugh, Thomas A. M. LU ; Ahlström, Anders LU
and Baig, Sofia
(2021)
In Earth System Dynamics
12(3).
p.857-870
- Abstract
- Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO2] caused by anthropogenic activities has triggered a requirement to predict the future impact of [CO2] on forests. The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region comprises a vast territory including forests, grasslands, farmlands and wetland ecosystems. In this study, the impacts of climate change and land-use change on forest carbon fluxes and vegetation productivity are assessed for HKH using the Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS). LPJ-GUESS simulations were driven by an ensemble of three climate models participating in the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) database. The modelled estimates of vegetation carbon (VegC) and terrestrial primary... (More)
- Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO2] caused by anthropogenic activities has triggered a requirement to predict the future impact of [CO2] on forests. The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region comprises a vast territory including forests, grasslands, farmlands and wetland ecosystems. In this study, the impacts of climate change and land-use change on forest carbon fluxes and vegetation productivity are assessed for HKH using the Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS). LPJ-GUESS simulations were driven by an ensemble of three climate models participating in the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) database. The modelled estimates of vegetation carbon (VegC) and terrestrial primary productivity were compared with observation-based estimates. Furthermore, we also explored the net biome productivity (NBP) and its components over HKH for the period 1851–2100 under the future climate scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. A reduced modelled NBP (reduced C sink) is observed from 1986–2015 primarily due to land-use change. However, an increase in NBP is predicted under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The findings of the study have important implications for the management of the HKH region, in addition to informing strategic decision making and land-use planning, and clarifying policy concerns. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/7dd1e584-0cab-44cd-9a0a-ffae47df49a2
- author
- Usman, Halima
; Pugh, Thomas A. M.
LU
; Ahlström, Anders
LU
and Baig, Sofia
- organization
- publishing date
- 2021-08-16
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- TIBETAN PLATEAU, CARBON UPTAKE, TEMPERATURE, RESPIRATION, ECOSYSTEMS, REDUCTION, EMISSIONS, DYNAMICS, INCREASE
- in
- Earth System Dynamics
- volume
- 12
- issue
- 3
- pages
- 857 - 870
- publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85113708780
- ISSN
- 2190-4979
- DOI
- 10.5194/esd-12-857-2021
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 7dd1e584-0cab-44cd-9a0a-ffae47df49a2
- date added to LUP
- 2021-08-26 22:08:58
- date last changed
- 2022-06-29 07:20:18
@article{7dd1e584-0cab-44cd-9a0a-ffae47df49a2,
abstract = {{Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO2] caused by anthropogenic activities has triggered a requirement to predict the future impact of [CO2] on forests. The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region comprises a vast territory including forests, grasslands, farmlands and wetland ecosystems. In this study, the impacts of climate change and land-use change on forest carbon fluxes and vegetation productivity are assessed for HKH using the Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS). LPJ-GUESS simulations were driven by an ensemble of three climate models participating in the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) database. The modelled estimates of vegetation carbon (VegC) and terrestrial primary productivity were compared with observation-based estimates. Furthermore, we also explored the net biome productivity (NBP) and its components over HKH for the period 1851–2100 under the future climate scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. A reduced modelled NBP (reduced C sink) is observed from 1986–2015 primarily due to land-use change. However, an increase in NBP is predicted under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The findings of the study have important implications for the management of the HKH region, in addition to informing strategic decision making and land-use planning, and clarifying policy concerns.}},
author = {{Usman, Halima and Pugh, Thomas A. M. and Ahlström, Anders and Baig, Sofia}},
issn = {{2190-4979}},
keywords = {{TIBETAN PLATEAU; CARBON UPTAKE; TEMPERATURE; RESPIRATION; ECOSYSTEMS; REDUCTION; EMISSIONS; DYNAMICS; INCREASE}},
language = {{eng}},
month = {{08}},
number = {{3}},
pages = {{857--870}},
publisher = {{Copernicus GmbH}},
series = {{Earth System Dynamics}},
title = {{Climate change projections of terrestrial primary productivity over the Hindu Kush Himalayan forests}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-857-2021}},
doi = {{10.5194/esd-12-857-2021}},
volume = {{12}},
year = {{2021}},
}