Phasing out the blast furnace to meet global climate targets
(2021) In Joule 5(10). p.2646-2662- Abstract
Iron and steel production is responsible for 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Earlier literature finds that the long economic life of steel production equipment impedes decarbonization in line with climate targets. Here, we estimate the cumulative emissions from existing primary steel production equipment if operated as historically observed, based on furnace-level data of historical operating patterns. We find that the emissions commitment of current primary steel equipment is significantly smaller (21 Gt CO2eq) than previously suggested (52–65 Gt CO2eq). Consequently, we argue that future emissions from steel are driven not by long-lived capital but by the deployment pace of novel technologies and renewable... (More)
Iron and steel production is responsible for 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Earlier literature finds that the long economic life of steel production equipment impedes decarbonization in line with climate targets. Here, we estimate the cumulative emissions from existing primary steel production equipment if operated as historically observed, based on furnace-level data of historical operating patterns. We find that the emissions commitment of current primary steel equipment is significantly smaller (21 Gt CO2eq) than previously suggested (52–65 Gt CO2eq). Consequently, we argue that future emissions from steel are driven not by long-lived capital but by the deployment pace of novel technologies and renewable energy provision, and a reduction of steel and energy demand. Without rapid progress in these aspects, the operation of current steel production equipment is likely to consume significant amounts of the remaining carbon budget. We recommend monitoring of emission-intensive asset aging and regulation of their operation.
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- author
- Vogl, Valentin
LU
; Olsson, Olle and Nykvist, Björn
- organization
- publishing date
- 2021-10-20
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- carbon lock-in, climate change mitigation, climate policy, committed emissions, industrial decarbonization, steel
- in
- Joule
- volume
- 5
- issue
- 10
- pages
- 17 pages
- publisher
- Cell Press
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85117210055
- ISSN
- 2542-4351
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.joule.2021.09.007
- project
- Pathways for HDR steel making (HYBRIT RP1 -WP6)
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Authors
- id
- 7ea04d3b-d181-4792-8036-7a3df855a7d8
- date added to LUP
- 2021-11-01 14:42:53
- date last changed
- 2022-04-27 05:21:42
@article{7ea04d3b-d181-4792-8036-7a3df855a7d8, abstract = {{<p>Iron and steel production is responsible for 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Earlier literature finds that the long economic life of steel production equipment impedes decarbonization in line with climate targets. Here, we estimate the cumulative emissions from existing primary steel production equipment if operated as historically observed, based on furnace-level data of historical operating patterns. We find that the emissions commitment of current primary steel equipment is significantly smaller (21 Gt CO<sub>2</sub>eq) than previously suggested (52–65 Gt CO<sub>2</sub>eq). Consequently, we argue that future emissions from steel are driven not by long-lived capital but by the deployment pace of novel technologies and renewable energy provision, and a reduction of steel and energy demand. Without rapid progress in these aspects, the operation of current steel production equipment is likely to consume significant amounts of the remaining carbon budget. We recommend monitoring of emission-intensive asset aging and regulation of their operation.</p>}}, author = {{Vogl, Valentin and Olsson, Olle and Nykvist, Björn}}, issn = {{2542-4351}}, keywords = {{carbon lock-in; climate change mitigation; climate policy; committed emissions; industrial decarbonization; steel}}, language = {{eng}}, month = {{10}}, number = {{10}}, pages = {{2646--2662}}, publisher = {{Cell Press}}, series = {{Joule}}, title = {{Phasing out the blast furnace to meet global climate targets}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.09.007}}, doi = {{10.1016/j.joule.2021.09.007}}, volume = {{5}}, year = {{2021}}, }