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Phasing out the blast furnace to meet global climate targets

Vogl, Valentin LU orcid ; Olsson, Olle and Nykvist, Björn (2021) In Joule 5(10). p.2646-2662
Abstract

Iron and steel production is responsible for 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Earlier literature finds that the long economic life of steel production equipment impedes decarbonization in line with climate targets. Here, we estimate the cumulative emissions from existing primary steel production equipment if operated as historically observed, based on furnace-level data of historical operating patterns. We find that the emissions commitment of current primary steel equipment is significantly smaller (21 Gt CO2eq) than previously suggested (52–65 Gt CO2eq). Consequently, we argue that future emissions from steel are driven not by long-lived capital but by the deployment pace of novel technologies and renewable... (More)

Iron and steel production is responsible for 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Earlier literature finds that the long economic life of steel production equipment impedes decarbonization in line with climate targets. Here, we estimate the cumulative emissions from existing primary steel production equipment if operated as historically observed, based on furnace-level data of historical operating patterns. We find that the emissions commitment of current primary steel equipment is significantly smaller (21 Gt CO2eq) than previously suggested (52–65 Gt CO2eq). Consequently, we argue that future emissions from steel are driven not by long-lived capital but by the deployment pace of novel technologies and renewable energy provision, and a reduction of steel and energy demand. Without rapid progress in these aspects, the operation of current steel production equipment is likely to consume significant amounts of the remaining carbon budget. We recommend monitoring of emission-intensive asset aging and regulation of their operation.

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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
carbon lock-in, climate change mitigation, climate policy, committed emissions, industrial decarbonization, steel
in
Joule
volume
5
issue
10
pages
17 pages
publisher
Cell Press
external identifiers
  • scopus:85117210055
ISSN
2542-4351
DOI
10.1016/j.joule.2021.09.007
project
Pathways for HDR steel making (HYBRIT RP1 -WP6)
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Authors
id
7ea04d3b-d181-4792-8036-7a3df855a7d8
date added to LUP
2021-11-01 14:42:53
date last changed
2022-04-27 05:21:42
@article{7ea04d3b-d181-4792-8036-7a3df855a7d8,
  abstract     = {{<p>Iron and steel production is responsible for 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Earlier literature finds that the long economic life of steel production equipment impedes decarbonization in line with climate targets. Here, we estimate the cumulative emissions from existing primary steel production equipment if operated as historically observed, based on furnace-level data of historical operating patterns. We find that the emissions commitment of current primary steel equipment is significantly smaller (21 Gt CO<sub>2</sub>eq) than previously suggested (52–65 Gt CO<sub>2</sub>eq). Consequently, we argue that future emissions from steel are driven not by long-lived capital but by the deployment pace of novel technologies and renewable energy provision, and a reduction of steel and energy demand. Without rapid progress in these aspects, the operation of current steel production equipment is likely to consume significant amounts of the remaining carbon budget. We recommend monitoring of emission-intensive asset aging and regulation of their operation.</p>}},
  author       = {{Vogl, Valentin and Olsson, Olle and Nykvist, Björn}},
  issn         = {{2542-4351}},
  keywords     = {{carbon lock-in; climate change mitigation; climate policy; committed emissions; industrial decarbonization; steel}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{10}},
  number       = {{10}},
  pages        = {{2646--2662}},
  publisher    = {{Cell Press}},
  series       = {{Joule}},
  title        = {{Phasing out the blast furnace to meet global climate targets}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.09.007}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.joule.2021.09.007}},
  volume       = {{5}},
  year         = {{2021}},
}