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Aluminium for the future: Modelling the global production, market supply, demand, price and long term development of the global reserves

Sverdrup, Harald LU ; Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala and Koca, Deniz LU (2015) In Resources, Conservation & Recycling 103(103). p.139-154
Abstract
The reserves, production from mines, supply of aluminium to society and mass fluxes of aluminium in society was assessed using an integrated systems dynamics model (ALUMINIUM) in order to reconstruct the past and investigate potential future scenarios. The investigations for input data show that the mine- able aluminium reserves are large, but finite. We get an average value for the ultimately recoverable reserve to be about 20–25 billion ton aluminium. The production of aluminium at present is 50 million ton per year. Continuing business-as-usual consumption with sustained global population growth above 7 billion people combined with a decline in cheap fossil fuels, aluminium may in the long perspective be a more expensive product than... (More)
The reserves, production from mines, supply of aluminium to society and mass fluxes of aluminium in society was assessed using an integrated systems dynamics model (ALUMINIUM) in order to reconstruct the past and investigate potential future scenarios. The investigations for input data show that the mine- able aluminium reserves are large, but finite. We get an average value for the ultimately recoverable reserve to be about 20–25 billion ton aluminium. The production of aluminium at present is 50 million ton per year. Continuing business-as-usual consumption with sustained global population growth above 7 billion people combined with a decline in cheap fossil fuels, aluminium may in the long perspective be a more expensive product than today. Should the event of a need for substituting a significant part of copper, iron, steel and stainless steel with aluminium arise, the time to scarcity for aluminium could become an issue within the next four decades. Ultimately, continuation of the aluminium production may in the future become limited by access to energy. Whereas aluminium primary production may go through a peak in the next decades, supply to society will not reach a peak before the end of the century, because of recycling from the stock in society. The model suggests that the supply level will decline to 2014 level sometime around 2250, or 230 years into the future. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Aluminium, Mining, System Dynamics, Reserves, Price
in
Resources, Conservation & Recycling
volume
103
issue
103
pages
139 - 154
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000362618600013
  • scopus:84941087060
ISSN
0921-3449
DOI
10.1016/j.resconrec.2015.06.008
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
7ebdd47d-1353-4935-a0f4-69d59a4bc48d (old id 7988292)
date added to LUP
2015-09-23 15:44:40
date last changed
2017-03-12 03:58:20
@article{7ebdd47d-1353-4935-a0f4-69d59a4bc48d,
  abstract     = {The reserves, production from mines, supply of aluminium to society and mass fluxes of aluminium in society was assessed using an integrated systems dynamics model (ALUMINIUM) in order to reconstruct the past and investigate potential future scenarios. The investigations for input data show that the mine- able aluminium reserves are large, but finite. We get an average value for the ultimately recoverable reserve to be about 20–25 billion ton aluminium. The production of aluminium at present is 50 million ton per year. Continuing business-as-usual consumption with sustained global population growth above 7 billion people combined with a decline in cheap fossil fuels, aluminium may in the long perspective be a more expensive product than today. Should the event of a need for substituting a significant part of copper, iron, steel and stainless steel with aluminium arise, the time to scarcity for aluminium could become an issue within the next four decades. Ultimately, continuation of the aluminium production may in the future become limited by access to energy. Whereas aluminium primary production may go through a peak in the next decades, supply to society will not reach a peak before the end of the century, because of recycling from the stock in society. The model suggests that the supply level will decline to 2014 level sometime around 2250, or 230 years into the future.},
  author       = {Sverdrup, Harald and Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala and Koca, Deniz},
  issn         = {0921-3449},
  keyword      = {Aluminium,Mining,System Dynamics,Reserves,Price},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {103},
  pages        = {139--154},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Resources, Conservation & Recycling},
  title        = {Aluminium for the future: Modelling the global production, market supply, demand, price and long term development of the global reserves},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2015.06.008},
  volume       = {103},
  year         = {2015},
}