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A model of the decision-making process during pre-evacuation

Lovreglio, Ruggiero; Ronchi, Enrico LU and Nilsson, Daniel LU (2015) In Fire Safety Journal 78. p.168-179
Abstract
The behaviour of building occupants before the purposive movement towards an exit, known as the pre-evacuation behaviour, can have a strong impact on the total time required to leave a building in case of fire emergency as well as on the number of casualties and deaths. The pre-evacuation time can be simulated within computational models using different approaches. This work introduces a new model for the simulation of pre-evacuation behaviour based on the Random Utility Theory. The proposed model represents the pre-evacuation behaviour of simulated occupants considering three behavioural states: normal, investigating and evacuating. The model simulates the probability of choosing to start investigating and evacuating in relation to... (More)
The behaviour of building occupants before the purposive movement towards an exit, known as the pre-evacuation behaviour, can have a strong impact on the total time required to leave a building in case of fire emergency as well as on the number of casualties and deaths. The pre-evacuation time can be simulated within computational models using different approaches. This work introduces a new model for the simulation of pre-evacuation behaviour based on the Random Utility Theory. The proposed model represents the pre-evacuation behaviour of simulated occupants considering three behavioural states: normal, investigating and evacuating. The model simulates the probability of choosing to start investigating and evacuating in relation to physical and social environmental factors as well as personal occupant characteristics. These two decisions make occupants pass from their starting normal states to investigating and evacuating states. The paper presents a case study of the proposed pre-evacuation time model using an experimental evacuation data set in a cinema theatre. The application of the model allows identifying the main factors affecting the decision to move from a state to another. In the present case study, the main factors influencing the decisions were the time elapsed since the start of the alarm, the occupant’s position, and social influence. The issues associated with the implementation of the model are discussed. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Evacuation modelling, Pre-evacuation behaviour, Decision-making, Random utility model
in
Fire Safety Journal
volume
78
pages
168 - 179
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000366791400016
  • scopus:84944327654
ISSN
0379-7112
DOI
10.1016/j.firesaf.2015.07.001
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
e7e9e624-c973-4cff-8423-5303c2889cd7 (old id 8057131)
date added to LUP
2015-10-20 14:29:56
date last changed
2017-09-10 04:20:07
@article{e7e9e624-c973-4cff-8423-5303c2889cd7,
  abstract     = {The behaviour of building occupants before the purposive movement towards an exit, known as the pre-evacuation behaviour, can have a strong impact on the total time required to leave a building in case of fire emergency as well as on the number of casualties and deaths. The pre-evacuation time can be simulated within computational models using different approaches. This work introduces a new model for the simulation of pre-evacuation behaviour based on the Random Utility Theory. The proposed model represents the pre-evacuation behaviour of simulated occupants considering three behavioural states: normal, investigating and evacuating. The model simulates the probability of choosing to start investigating and evacuating in relation to physical and social environmental factors as well as personal occupant characteristics. These two decisions make occupants pass from their starting normal states to investigating and evacuating states. The paper presents a case study of the proposed pre-evacuation time model using an experimental evacuation data set in a cinema theatre. The application of the model allows identifying the main factors affecting the decision to move from a state to another. In the present case study, the main factors influencing the decisions were the time elapsed since the start of the alarm, the occupant’s position, and social influence. The issues associated with the implementation of the model are discussed.},
  author       = {Lovreglio, Ruggiero and Ronchi, Enrico and Nilsson, Daniel},
  issn         = {0379-7112},
  keyword      = {Evacuation modelling,Pre-evacuation behaviour,Decision-making,Random utility model},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {168--179},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Fire Safety Journal},
  title        = {A model of the decision-making process during pre-evacuation},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2015.07.001},
  volume       = {78},
  year         = {2015},
}