Advanced

Long-term population dynamics of a migrant bird suggests interaction of climate change and competition with resident species

Wittwer, Torben LU ; O'Hara, Robert B.; Caplat, Paul; Hickler, Thomas and Smith, Henrik LU (2015) In Oikos 124(9). p.1151-1159
Abstract
The separation of abiotic and biotic factors affecting populations and communities is an important step in understanding how climate change can influence ecological processes, but quantifying their relative contribution to community changes is a challenge. We assessed the effect of temperature and species interactions on the population dynamics of a forest bird community with a hierarchical dynamic population model in a Bayesian framework. We used a long-term time-series (1956-2012) of four secondary cavity-nesting birds with similar food and nesting requirements but different migration habits, to analyse the effects of the four species population size and the local weather fluctuations on each species' population dynamics. We found clear... (More)
The separation of abiotic and biotic factors affecting populations and communities is an important step in understanding how climate change can influence ecological processes, but quantifying their relative contribution to community changes is a challenge. We assessed the effect of temperature and species interactions on the population dynamics of a forest bird community with a hierarchical dynamic population model in a Bayesian framework. We used a long-term time-series (1956-2012) of four secondary cavity-nesting birds with similar food and nesting requirements but different migration habits, to analyse the effects of the four species population size and the local weather fluctuations on each species' population dynamics. We found clear evidence of a negative effect of two resident species (blue tit and great tit) on a long-distance migrant (pied flycatcher). Among the residents we only found a competition effect of the great tit on the marsh tit. The birds showed opposite responses to weather: the pied flycatcher favoured colder springs whereas the blue tit and great tit favoured warmer springs. Although alternative mechanisms cannot be ruled out, our results suggest that the resident species (blue tit and great tit) could adjust to increasing spring temperature while the migrant species (pied flycatcher) could not, leading progressively to the exclusion of the pied flycatcher from the area. These results point out the potential role of competitive interactions by providing insightful clues, call for refined research, and support recent efforts to include population dynamics in species distribution models. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Oikos
volume
124
issue
9
pages
1151 - 1159
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • wos:000360823400005
  • scopus:84940543670
ISSN
1600-0706
DOI
10.1111/oik.01559
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
9bbf946d-8677-4873-b5ac-9c3c998eb790 (old id 8077286)
date added to LUP
2015-10-23 10:42:16
date last changed
2017-10-22 03:18:44
@article{9bbf946d-8677-4873-b5ac-9c3c998eb790,
  abstract     = {The separation of abiotic and biotic factors affecting populations and communities is an important step in understanding how climate change can influence ecological processes, but quantifying their relative contribution to community changes is a challenge. We assessed the effect of temperature and species interactions on the population dynamics of a forest bird community with a hierarchical dynamic population model in a Bayesian framework. We used a long-term time-series (1956-2012) of four secondary cavity-nesting birds with similar food and nesting requirements but different migration habits, to analyse the effects of the four species population size and the local weather fluctuations on each species' population dynamics. We found clear evidence of a negative effect of two resident species (blue tit and great tit) on a long-distance migrant (pied flycatcher). Among the residents we only found a competition effect of the great tit on the marsh tit. The birds showed opposite responses to weather: the pied flycatcher favoured colder springs whereas the blue tit and great tit favoured warmer springs. Although alternative mechanisms cannot be ruled out, our results suggest that the resident species (blue tit and great tit) could adjust to increasing spring temperature while the migrant species (pied flycatcher) could not, leading progressively to the exclusion of the pied flycatcher from the area. These results point out the potential role of competitive interactions by providing insightful clues, call for refined research, and support recent efforts to include population dynamics in species distribution models.},
  author       = {Wittwer, Torben and O'Hara, Robert B. and Caplat, Paul and Hickler, Thomas and Smith, Henrik},
  issn         = {1600-0706},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {9},
  pages        = {1151--1159},
  publisher    = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  series       = {Oikos},
  title        = {Long-term population dynamics of a migrant bird suggests interaction of climate change and competition with resident species},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/oik.01559},
  volume       = {124},
  year         = {2015},
}