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Tipping point-induced abrupt shifts in East Asian hydroclimate since the Last Glacial Maximum

Lu, Fuzhi ; Lu, Huayu ; Gu, Yao ; Lin, Pengyu ; Lu, Zhengyao LU ; Zhang, Qiong ; Zhang, Hongyan ; Yang, Fan ; Dong, Xiaoyi and Yi, Shuangwen , et al. (2025) In Nature Communications 16(1).
Abstract

Multiple tipping points in the Earth system could be triggered when global warming exceeds specific thresholds. However, the degree of their impact on the East Asian hydroclimate remains uncertain due to the lack of quantitative rainfall records. Here we present an ensemble reconstruction of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using nine statistical and machine learning methods based on multi-proxy records from a maar lake in southern China. Our results define five tipping points in the EASM rainfall since the LGM, which are characterized by abrupt and irreversible regime shifts with a median amplitude of 387 ± 73 mm (24 ± 5 %). Combined with multi-model simulations and existing records, we... (More)

Multiple tipping points in the Earth system could be triggered when global warming exceeds specific thresholds. However, the degree of their impact on the East Asian hydroclimate remains uncertain due to the lack of quantitative rainfall records. Here we present an ensemble reconstruction of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using nine statistical and machine learning methods based on multi-proxy records from a maar lake in southern China. Our results define five tipping points in the EASM rainfall since the LGM, which are characterized by abrupt and irreversible regime shifts with a median amplitude of 387 ± 73 mm (24 ± 5 %). Combined with multi-model simulations and existing records, we attribute these tipping points to cascades of abrupt shifts in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and Saharan vegetation. Our findings underscore the nonlinear behavior of the EASM and its coupling with other tipping elements.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Nature Communications
volume
16
issue
1
article number
477
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • pmid:39774637
  • scopus:85214360859
ISSN
2041-1723
DOI
10.1038/s41467-025-55888-w
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
810f17d4-2a28-4c9e-9fc8-ca2d7d912859
date added to LUP
2025-03-11 15:13:21
date last changed
2025-07-30 03:03:03
@article{810f17d4-2a28-4c9e-9fc8-ca2d7d912859,
  abstract     = {{<p>Multiple tipping points in the Earth system could be triggered when global warming exceeds specific thresholds. However, the degree of their impact on the East Asian hydroclimate remains uncertain due to the lack of quantitative rainfall records. Here we present an ensemble reconstruction of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using nine statistical and machine learning methods based on multi-proxy records from a maar lake in southern China. Our results define five tipping points in the EASM rainfall since the LGM, which are characterized by abrupt and irreversible regime shifts with a median amplitude of 387 ± 73 mm (24 ± 5 %). Combined with multi-model simulations and existing records, we attribute these tipping points to cascades of abrupt shifts in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and Saharan vegetation. Our findings underscore the nonlinear behavior of the EASM and its coupling with other tipping elements.</p>}},
  author       = {{Lu, Fuzhi and Lu, Huayu and Gu, Yao and Lin, Pengyu and Lu, Zhengyao and Zhang, Qiong and Zhang, Hongyan and Yang, Fan and Dong, Xiaoyi and Yi, Shuangwen and Chen, Deliang and Pausata, Francesco S.R. and Ben-Yami, Maya and Mecking, Jennifer V.}},
  issn         = {{2041-1723}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{1}},
  publisher    = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  series       = {{Nature Communications}},
  title        = {{Tipping point-induced abrupt shifts in East Asian hydroclimate since the Last Glacial Maximum}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-55888-w}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s41467-025-55888-w}},
  volume       = {{16}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}