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Evacuation models are running out of time

Thompson, Peter; Nilsson, Daniel LU ; Boyce, Karen and McGrath, Denise (2015) In Fire Safety Journal 78. p.251-261
Abstract
The representation of crowd movement in existing evacuation models is typically based on data collected in the 1950s to 1980s, i.e., data that are more than 40 years old. Since the 1970s, population characteristics have changed dramatically around the world. Reports show that the percentage of elderly and obesity rates have increased significantly and this trend is predicted to continue into the future. Recent research [1-3] illustrates the magnitude by which different age cohorts of a population group can reduce the general speed and flow rates. In addition, well established studies have quantified the impact of body dimensions on speed and flow [4]. However, many existing evacuation models fail to take the changing characteristics of... (More)
The representation of crowd movement in existing evacuation models is typically based on data collected in the 1950s to 1980s, i.e., data that are more than 40 years old. Since the 1970s, population characteristics have changed dramatically around the world. Reports show that the percentage of elderly and obesity rates have increased significantly and this trend is predicted to continue into the future. Recent research [1-3] illustrates the magnitude by which different age cohorts of a population group can reduce the general speed and flow rates. In addition, well established studies have quantified the impact of body dimensions on speed and flow [4]. However, many existing evacuation models fail to take the changing characteristics of populations into account. This paper aims to review existing knowledge of population demographics and crowd dynamics, derive an indicative flow reduction factor for future populations, and consider the implications for computer models and building design in the future. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Evacuation, Model, Population, Crowd, Walking, Flow, Safety, Simulation, Demographics, Emergency, Standards
in
Fire Safety Journal
volume
78
pages
251 - 261
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000366791400024
  • scopus:84948707105
ISSN
0379-7112
DOI
10.1016/j.firesaf.2015.09.004
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
5ddfbf17-1b60-4ef6-9a0b-586fa6ce946b (old id 8548667)
date added to LUP
2016-01-29 11:11:59
date last changed
2017-08-13 04:01:30
@article{5ddfbf17-1b60-4ef6-9a0b-586fa6ce946b,
  abstract     = {The representation of crowd movement in existing evacuation models is typically based on data collected in the 1950s to 1980s, i.e., data that are more than 40 years old. Since the 1970s, population characteristics have changed dramatically around the world. Reports show that the percentage of elderly and obesity rates have increased significantly and this trend is predicted to continue into the future. Recent research [1-3] illustrates the magnitude by which different age cohorts of a population group can reduce the general speed and flow rates. In addition, well established studies have quantified the impact of body dimensions on speed and flow [4]. However, many existing evacuation models fail to take the changing characteristics of populations into account. This paper aims to review existing knowledge of population demographics and crowd dynamics, derive an indicative flow reduction factor for future populations, and consider the implications for computer models and building design in the future. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
  author       = {Thompson, Peter and Nilsson, Daniel and Boyce, Karen and McGrath, Denise},
  issn         = {0379-7112},
  keyword      = {Evacuation,Model,Population,Crowd,Walking,Flow,Safety,Simulation,Demographics,Emergency,Standards},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {251--261},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Fire Safety Journal},
  title        = {Evacuation models are running out of time},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2015.09.004},
  volume       = {78},
  year         = {2015},
}