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Drivers for global agricultural land use change: The nexus of diet, population, yield and bioenergy

Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Dislich, Claudia; Dodson, Jennifer R.; Engstrom, Kerstin LU and Moran, Dominic (2015) In Global Environmental Change 35. p.138-147
Abstract
The nexus of population growth and changing diets has increased the demands placed on agriculture to supply food for human consumption, animal feed and fuel. Rising incomes lead to dietary changes, from staple crops, towards commodities with greater land requirements, e.g. meat and dairy products. Despite yield improvements partially offsetting increases in demand, agricultural land has still been expanding, causing potential harm to ecosystems, e.g. through deforestation. We use country-level panel data (1961-2011) to allocate the land areas used to produce food for human consumption, waste and biofuels, and to attribute the food production area changes to diet, population and yields drivers. The results show that the production of animal... (More)
The nexus of population growth and changing diets has increased the demands placed on agriculture to supply food for human consumption, animal feed and fuel. Rising incomes lead to dietary changes, from staple crops, towards commodities with greater land requirements, e.g. meat and dairy products. Despite yield improvements partially offsetting increases in demand, agricultural land has still been expanding, causing potential harm to ecosystems, e.g. through deforestation. We use country-level panel data (1961-2011) to allocate the land areas used to produce food for human consumption, waste and biofuels, and to attribute the food production area changes to diet, population and yields drivers. The results show that the production of animal products dominates agricultural land use and land use change over the 50-year period, accounting for 65% of land use change. The rate of extensification of animal production was found to have reduced more recently, principally due to the smaller effect of population growth. The area used for bioenergy was shown to be relatively small, but formed a substantial contribution (36%) to net agricultural expansion in the most recent period. Nevertheless, in comparison to dietary shifts in animal products, bioenergy accounted for less than a tenth of the increase in demand for agricultural land. Population expansion has been the largest driver for agricultural land use change, but dietary changes are a significant and growing driver. China was a notable exception, where dietary transitions dominate food consumption changes, due to rapidly rising incomes. This suggests that future dietary changes will become the principal driver for land use change, pointing to the potential need for demand-side measures to regulate agricultural expansion. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Land use, Dietary patterns, Land displacement, Food security
in
Global Environmental Change
volume
35
pages
138 - 147
publisher
Global Environmental Change, Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000366767100014
  • scopus:84941041637
ISSN
0959-3780
DOI
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.08.011
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
b87d1de0-176f-457a-b011-6cca07543ec9 (old id 8556636)
date added to LUP
2016-01-28 09:30:56
date last changed
2017-09-24 03:08:29
@article{b87d1de0-176f-457a-b011-6cca07543ec9,
  abstract     = {The nexus of population growth and changing diets has increased the demands placed on agriculture to supply food for human consumption, animal feed and fuel. Rising incomes lead to dietary changes, from staple crops, towards commodities with greater land requirements, e.g. meat and dairy products. Despite yield improvements partially offsetting increases in demand, agricultural land has still been expanding, causing potential harm to ecosystems, e.g. through deforestation. We use country-level panel data (1961-2011) to allocate the land areas used to produce food for human consumption, waste and biofuels, and to attribute the food production area changes to diet, population and yields drivers. The results show that the production of animal products dominates agricultural land use and land use change over the 50-year period, accounting for 65% of land use change. The rate of extensification of animal production was found to have reduced more recently, principally due to the smaller effect of population growth. The area used for bioenergy was shown to be relatively small, but formed a substantial contribution (36%) to net agricultural expansion in the most recent period. Nevertheless, in comparison to dietary shifts in animal products, bioenergy accounted for less than a tenth of the increase in demand for agricultural land. Population expansion has been the largest driver for agricultural land use change, but dietary changes are a significant and growing driver. China was a notable exception, where dietary transitions dominate food consumption changes, due to rapidly rising incomes. This suggests that future dietary changes will become the principal driver for land use change, pointing to the potential need for demand-side measures to regulate agricultural expansion. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
  author       = {Alexander, Peter and Rounsevell, Mark D. A. and Dislich, Claudia and Dodson, Jennifer R. and Engstrom, Kerstin and Moran, Dominic},
  issn         = {0959-3780},
  keyword      = {Land use,Dietary patterns,Land displacement,Food security},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {138--147},
  publisher    = {Global Environmental Change, Elsevier},
  series       = {Global Environmental Change},
  title        = {Drivers for global agricultural land use change: The nexus of diet, population, yield and bioenergy},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.08.011},
  volume       = {35},
  year         = {2015},
}