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Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography: A comparison of two fire-vegetation models

Wu, Minchao LU ; Knorr, Wolfgang LU ; Thonicke, Kirsten; Schurgers, Guy; Camia, Andrea and Arneth, Almut (2015) In Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences 120(11). p.2256-2272
Abstract
Global environmental changes and human activity influence wildland fires worldwide, but the relative importance of the individual factors varies regionally and their interplay can be difficult to disentangle. Here we evaluate projected future changes in burned area at the European and sub-European scale, and we investigate uncertainties in the relative importance of the determining factors. We simulated future burned area with LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE, a patch-dynamic global vegetation model with a semiempirical fire model, and LPJmL-SPITFIRE, a dynamic global vegetation model with a process-based fire model. Applying a range of future projections that combine different scenarios for climate changes, enhanced CO2 concentrations, and population... (More)
Global environmental changes and human activity influence wildland fires worldwide, but the relative importance of the individual factors varies regionally and their interplay can be difficult to disentangle. Here we evaluate projected future changes in burned area at the European and sub-European scale, and we investigate uncertainties in the relative importance of the determining factors. We simulated future burned area with LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE, a patch-dynamic global vegetation model with a semiempirical fire model, and LPJmL-SPITFIRE, a dynamic global vegetation model with a process-based fire model. Applying a range of future projections that combine different scenarios for climate changes, enhanced CO2 concentrations, and population growth, we investigated the individual and combined effects of these drivers on the total area and regions affected by fire in the 21st century. The two models differed notably with respect to the dominating drivers and underlying processes. Fire-vegetation interactions and socioeconomic effects emerged as important uncertainties for future burned area in some European regions. Burned area of eastern Europe increased in both models, pointing at an emerging new fire-prone region that should gain further attention for future fire management. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences
volume
120
issue
11
pages
2256 - 2272
publisher
American Geophysical Union
external identifiers
  • wos:000368908700011
  • scopus:84956583952
ISSN
2169-8953
DOI
10.1002/2015JG003036
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
e2a75091-1045-4ece-a255-eb0fe4b327b8 (old id 8731688)
date added to LUP
2016-02-26 13:26:22
date last changed
2017-10-22 03:22:32
@article{e2a75091-1045-4ece-a255-eb0fe4b327b8,
  abstract     = {Global environmental changes and human activity influence wildland fires worldwide, but the relative importance of the individual factors varies regionally and their interplay can be difficult to disentangle. Here we evaluate projected future changes in burned area at the European and sub-European scale, and we investigate uncertainties in the relative importance of the determining factors. We simulated future burned area with LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE, a patch-dynamic global vegetation model with a semiempirical fire model, and LPJmL-SPITFIRE, a dynamic global vegetation model with a process-based fire model. Applying a range of future projections that combine different scenarios for climate changes, enhanced CO2 concentrations, and population growth, we investigated the individual and combined effects of these drivers on the total area and regions affected by fire in the 21st century. The two models differed notably with respect to the dominating drivers and underlying processes. Fire-vegetation interactions and socioeconomic effects emerged as important uncertainties for future burned area in some European regions. Burned area of eastern Europe increased in both models, pointing at an emerging new fire-prone region that should gain further attention for future fire management.},
  author       = {Wu, Minchao and Knorr, Wolfgang and Thonicke, Kirsten and Schurgers, Guy and Camia, Andrea and Arneth, Almut},
  issn         = {2169-8953},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {11},
  pages        = {2256--2272},
  publisher    = {American Geophysical Union},
  series       = {Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences},
  title        = {Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography: A comparison of two fire-vegetation models},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003036},
  volume       = {120},
  year         = {2015},
}