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Applying Occam's razor to global agricultural land use change

Engstrom, Kerstin LU ; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Murray-Rust, Dave; Hardacre, Catherine; Alexander, Peter; Cui, Xufeng; Palmer, Paul I. and Arneth, Almut (2016) In Environmental Modelling & Software 75. p.212-229
Abstract
We present a parsimonious agricultural land-use model that is designed to replicate global land-use change while allowing the exploration of uncertainties in input parameters. At the global scale, the modelled uncertainty range of agricultural land-use change covers observed land-use change. Spatial patterns of cropland change at the country level are simulated less satisfactorily, but temporal trends of cropland change in large agricultural nations were replicated by the model. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties in the input parameters representing to consumption preferences are important for changes in global agricultural areas. However, uncertainties in technological change had the largest effect on... (More)
We present a parsimonious agricultural land-use model that is designed to replicate global land-use change while allowing the exploration of uncertainties in input parameters. At the global scale, the modelled uncertainty range of agricultural land-use change covers observed land-use change. Spatial patterns of cropland change at the country level are simulated less satisfactorily, but temporal trends of cropland change in large agricultural nations were replicated by the model. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties in the input parameters representing to consumption preferences are important for changes in global agricultural areas. However, uncertainties in technological change had the largest effect on cereal yields and changes in global agricultural area. Uncertainties related to technological change in developing countries were most important for modelling the extent of cropland. The performance of the model suggests that highly generalised representations of socioeconomic processes can be used to replicate global land-use change. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Global agricultural land-use, Parsimonious models, Parameter, uncertainty, Sensitivity analysis, Cereal yields
in
Environmental Modelling & Software
volume
75
pages
212 - 229
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000367105900018
  • scopus:84946434129
ISSN
1364-8152
DOI
10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.015
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
73e122d9-fd3b-48ad-91b9-f1b465f5fb41 (old id 8761714)
date added to LUP
2016-02-22 11:22:30
date last changed
2017-09-24 03:11:32
@article{73e122d9-fd3b-48ad-91b9-f1b465f5fb41,
  abstract     = {We present a parsimonious agricultural land-use model that is designed to replicate global land-use change while allowing the exploration of uncertainties in input parameters. At the global scale, the modelled uncertainty range of agricultural land-use change covers observed land-use change. Spatial patterns of cropland change at the country level are simulated less satisfactorily, but temporal trends of cropland change in large agricultural nations were replicated by the model. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties in the input parameters representing to consumption preferences are important for changes in global agricultural areas. However, uncertainties in technological change had the largest effect on cereal yields and changes in global agricultural area. Uncertainties related to technological change in developing countries were most important for modelling the extent of cropland. The performance of the model suggests that highly generalised representations of socioeconomic processes can be used to replicate global land-use change. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).},
  author       = {Engstrom, Kerstin and Rounsevell, Mark D. A. and Murray-Rust, Dave and Hardacre, Catherine and Alexander, Peter and Cui, Xufeng and Palmer, Paul I. and Arneth, Almut},
  issn         = {1364-8152},
  keyword      = {Global agricultural land-use,Parsimonious models,Parameter,uncertainty,Sensitivity analysis,Cereal yields},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {212--229},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Environmental Modelling & Software},
  title        = {Applying Occam's razor to global agricultural land use change},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.015},
  volume       = {75},
  year         = {2016},
}