Skip to main content

Lund University Publications

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °c and 2 °c worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

Schleussner, Carl Friedrich ; Deryng, Delphine ; Müller, Christoph LU ; Elliott, Joshua ; Saeed, Fahad ; Folberth, Christian ; Liu, Wenfeng ; Wang, Xuhui ; Pugh, Thomas A.M. LU and Thiery, Wim , et al. (2018) In Environmental Research Letters 13(6).
Abstract

Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO2 fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to future emissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5 °C and 2 °C... (More)

Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO2 fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to future emissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels, as well as at different CO2 levels determined by similar probabilities to lead to 1.5 °C and 2 °C, using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project. For the same CO2 forcing, we find consistent negative effects of half a degree warming on productivity in most world regions. Increasing CO2 concentrations consistent with these warming levels have potentially stronger but highly uncertain effects than 0.5 °C warming increments. Half a degree warming will also lead to more extreme low yields, in particular over tropical regions. Our results indicate that GMT change alone is insufficient to determine future impacts on crop productivity.

(Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; and , et al. (More)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; and (Less)
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
1.5 °C, GGCMI, HAPPI
in
Environmental Research Letters
volume
13
issue
6
article number
064007
publisher
IOP Publishing
external identifiers
  • scopus:85047811644
ISSN
1748-9318
DOI
10.1088/1748-9326/aab63b
language
English
LU publication?
no
id
9080faf5-7256-42da-bdc0-4153d741c885
date added to LUP
2020-11-19 22:47:36
date last changed
2022-04-19 02:08:52
@article{9080faf5-7256-42da-bdc0-4153d741c885,
  abstract     = {{<p>Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to future emissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels, as well as at different CO<sub>2</sub> levels determined by similar probabilities to lead to 1.5 °C and 2 °C, using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project. For the same CO<sub>2</sub> forcing, we find consistent negative effects of half a degree warming on productivity in most world regions. Increasing CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations consistent with these warming levels have potentially stronger but highly uncertain effects than 0.5 °C warming increments. Half a degree warming will also lead to more extreme low yields, in particular over tropical regions. Our results indicate that GMT change alone is insufficient to determine future impacts on crop productivity.</p>}},
  author       = {{Schleussner, Carl Friedrich and Deryng, Delphine and Müller, Christoph and Elliott, Joshua and Saeed, Fahad and Folberth, Christian and Liu, Wenfeng and Wang, Xuhui and Pugh, Thomas A.M. and Thiery, Wim and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Rogelj, Joeri}},
  issn         = {{1748-9318}},
  keywords     = {{1.5 °C; GGCMI; HAPPI}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{6}},
  publisher    = {{IOP Publishing}},
  series       = {{Environmental Research Letters}},
  title        = {{Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °c and 2 °c worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab63b}},
  doi          = {{10.1088/1748-9326/aab63b}},
  volume       = {{13}},
  year         = {{2018}},
}