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Increased Central European forest mortality explained by higher harvest rates driven by enhanced productivity

Scheel, Marieke LU ; Lindeskog, Mats LU ; Smith, Benjamin LU ; Suvanto, Susanne LU and Pugh, Thomas A.M. LU (2022) In Environmental Research Letters 17(11).
Abstract

Increasing tree growth and mortality rates in Europe are still poorly understood and have been attributed to a variety of drivers. This study explored the role of climate drivers, management and age structure in driving changes in tree mortality rates in six Central European countries from 1985 to 2010, using the process-based vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Simulations show a strong positive trend in canopy mortality rates in Central Europe, consistent with satellite observations. This trend was explained by an assumed increase in managed thinning in response to a modelled increase in forest productivity caused by climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Simulated rates of canopy mortality were highly sensitive... (More)

Increasing tree growth and mortality rates in Europe are still poorly understood and have been attributed to a variety of drivers. This study explored the role of climate drivers, management and age structure in driving changes in tree mortality rates in six Central European countries from 1985 to 2010, using the process-based vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Simulations show a strong positive trend in canopy mortality rates in Central Europe, consistent with satellite observations. This trend was explained by an assumed increase in managed thinning in response to a modelled increase in forest productivity caused by climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Simulated rates of canopy mortality were highly sensitive to the minimum tree size threshold applied for inclusion in the rate calculation, agreeing with satellite observations that are likely to only capture the loss of relatively large trees. The calculated trends in mortality rate also differed substantially depending on the metric used (i.e. carbon, stem or canopy mortality), highlighting the challenge of comparing tree mortality trends from different observation types. We conclude that changes in forest productivity and management in combination can profoundly affect regional-scale patterns of tree mortality. Our findings underscore the fact that increasing forest mortality can occur without reductions in forest growth when mediated by management responses to increasing productivity.

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author
; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
climate, CO fertilisation, European forest, forest management, harvest, tree mortality
in
Environmental Research Letters
volume
17
issue
11
article number
114007
publisher
IOP Publishing
external identifiers
  • scopus:85141080596
ISSN
1748-9318
DOI
10.1088/1748-9326/ac9635
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
913ab597-4c89-4c4c-b2c9-9280ade5af3e
date added to LUP
2022-12-02 11:12:40
date last changed
2022-12-02 11:12:40
@article{913ab597-4c89-4c4c-b2c9-9280ade5af3e,
  abstract     = {{<p>Increasing tree growth and mortality rates in Europe are still poorly understood and have been attributed to a variety of drivers. This study explored the role of climate drivers, management and age structure in driving changes in tree mortality rates in six Central European countries from 1985 to 2010, using the process-based vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Simulations show a strong positive trend in canopy mortality rates in Central Europe, consistent with satellite observations. This trend was explained by an assumed increase in managed thinning in response to a modelled increase in forest productivity caused by climate change and rising atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration. Simulated rates of canopy mortality were highly sensitive to the minimum tree size threshold applied for inclusion in the rate calculation, agreeing with satellite observations that are likely to only capture the loss of relatively large trees. The calculated trends in mortality rate also differed substantially depending on the metric used (i.e. carbon, stem or canopy mortality), highlighting the challenge of comparing tree mortality trends from different observation types. We conclude that changes in forest productivity and management in combination can profoundly affect regional-scale patterns of tree mortality. Our findings underscore the fact that increasing forest mortality can occur without reductions in forest growth when mediated by management responses to increasing productivity.</p>}},
  author       = {{Scheel, Marieke and Lindeskog, Mats and Smith, Benjamin and Suvanto, Susanne and Pugh, Thomas A.M.}},
  issn         = {{1748-9318}},
  keywords     = {{climate; CO fertilisation; European forest; forest management; harvest; tree mortality}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{11}},
  number       = {{11}},
  publisher    = {{IOP Publishing}},
  series       = {{Environmental Research Letters}},
  title        = {{Increased Central European forest mortality explained by higher harvest rates driven by enhanced productivity}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9635}},
  doi          = {{10.1088/1748-9326/ac9635}},
  volume       = {{17}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}