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Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets

Kazlou, Tsimafei ; Cherp, Aleh LU and Jewell, Jessica (2024) In Nature Climate Change 14(10). p.1047-1055
Abstract

Climate change mitigation requires the large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Recent plans indicate an eight-fold increase in CCS capacity by 2030, yet the feasibility of CCS expansion is debated. Using historical growth of CCS and other policy-driven technologies, we show that if plans double between 2023 and 2025 and their failure rates decrease by half, CCS could reach 0.37 GtCO2yr−1 by 2030—lower than most 1.5 °C pathways but higher than most 2 °C pathways. Staying on-track to 2 °C would require that in 2030–2040 CCS accelerates at least as fast as wind power did in the 2000s, and that after 2040, it grows faster than nuclear power did in the 1970s to 1980s. Only 10% of mitigation pathways... (More)

Climate change mitigation requires the large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Recent plans indicate an eight-fold increase in CCS capacity by 2030, yet the feasibility of CCS expansion is debated. Using historical growth of CCS and other policy-driven technologies, we show that if plans double between 2023 and 2025 and their failure rates decrease by half, CCS could reach 0.37 GtCO2yr−1 by 2030—lower than most 1.5 °C pathways but higher than most 2 °C pathways. Staying on-track to 2 °C would require that in 2030–2040 CCS accelerates at least as fast as wind power did in the 2000s, and that after 2040, it grows faster than nuclear power did in the 1970s to 1980s. Only 10% of mitigation pathways meet these feasibility constraints, and virtually all of them depict <600 GtCO2 captured and stored by 2100. Relaxing the constraints by assuming no failures of CCS plans and growth as fast as flue-gas desulfurization would approximately double this amount.

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author
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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Nature Climate Change
volume
14
issue
10
pages
1047 - 1055
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • pmid:39386083
  • scopus:85204766803
ISSN
1758-678X
DOI
10.1038/s41558-024-02104-0
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2024.
id
92284111-a973-44c2-b642-9bb8b4035a67
date added to LUP
2024-10-06 15:38:57
date last changed
2025-07-15 04:34:56
@article{92284111-a973-44c2-b642-9bb8b4035a67,
  abstract     = {{<p>Climate change mitigation requires the large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Recent plans indicate an eight-fold increase in CCS capacity by 2030, yet the feasibility of CCS expansion is debated. Using historical growth of CCS and other policy-driven technologies, we show that if plans double between 2023 and 2025 and their failure rates decrease by half, CCS could reach 0.37 GtCO<sub>2</sub>yr<sup>−1</sup> by 2030—lower than most 1.5 °C pathways but higher than most 2 °C pathways. Staying on-track to 2 °C would require that in 2030–2040 CCS accelerates at least as fast as wind power did in the 2000s, and that after 2040, it grows faster than nuclear power did in the 1970s to 1980s. Only 10% of mitigation pathways meet these feasibility constraints, and virtually all of them depict &lt;600 GtCO<sub>2</sub> captured and stored by 2100. Relaxing the constraints by assuming no failures of CCS plans and growth as fast as flue-gas desulfurization would approximately double this amount.</p>}},
  author       = {{Kazlou, Tsimafei and Cherp, Aleh and Jewell, Jessica}},
  issn         = {{1758-678X}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{10}},
  pages        = {{1047--1055}},
  publisher    = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  series       = {{Nature Climate Change}},
  title        = {{Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02104-0}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s41558-024-02104-0}},
  volume       = {{14}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}