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Migration speed and scheduling of annual events by migrating birds in relation to climate change

Hedenström, Anders LU ; Barta, Zoltan; Helm, Barbara; Houston, Alasdair I; McNamara, John M and Jonzén, Niclas LU (2007) In Climate Research 35(1-2). p.79-91
Abstract
Empirical evidence for changed timing of migration in birds is emerging from both

American and Euro-African migration systems. These changes are usually interpreted as a consequence

of changes in climate. Responses in timing of migration and breeding may differ among species,

and the adaptive significance is not well understood. There is a lack of theoretical understanding

about time-shifts in life-history events due to climatic changes. In the present paper, we use 2

separate modelling approaches to investigate the effects of climate change on migration. We first use

a simple model of flight speed and foraging to explore which factors may influence migration speed

and stopover... (More)
Empirical evidence for changed timing of migration in birds is emerging from both

American and Euro-African migration systems. These changes are usually interpreted as a consequence

of changes in climate. Responses in timing of migration and breeding may differ among species,

and the adaptive significance is not well understood. There is a lack of theoretical understanding

about time-shifts in life-history events due to climatic changes. In the present paper, we use 2

separate modelling approaches to investigate the effects of climate change on migration. We first use

a simple model of flight speed and foraging to explore which factors may influence migration speed

and stopover itinerary. Our second approach derives predictions based on an annual routine model,

where behavioural strategies regarding timing of migration, breeding, moult and number of breeding

attempts are modelled in an environment comprising 4 locations (breeding and wintering sites

and 2 stopover sites). This approach takes account of interrelationships between behaviours and seasons

as a step towards realistic modelling of migratory connectivity. Departure from the wintering site

is advanced in relation to the advancement of spring if the moult is in summer, but not so for species

with a winter moult, while arrival at the breeding site is advanced for both moult scenarios. Timing of

breeding and number of successful broods were also affected by spring advancement, while start of

moult is relatively unaffected by climate change. These optimal solutions under the modelled set of

parameters are discussed with respect to current knowledge of the mechanisms underlying seasonal

timing in birds. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Annual routines · Climate change · Phenology · Timing of breeding · Bird migration
in
Climate Research
volume
35
issue
1-2
pages
79 - 91
publisher
Inter-Research
external identifiers
  • wos:000252630400006
  • scopus:44249095905
ISSN
1616-1572
DOI
10.3354/cr00715
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
8ebd0098-53bc-41ea-bc42-b434e0c638e4 (old id 951594)
alternative location
http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr_oa/c035p079.pdf
date added to LUP
2008-01-25 13:19:24
date last changed
2017-10-22 03:43:06
@article{8ebd0098-53bc-41ea-bc42-b434e0c638e4,
  abstract     = {Empirical evidence for changed timing of migration in birds is emerging from both<br/><br>
American and Euro-African migration systems. These changes are usually interpreted as a consequence<br/><br>
of changes in climate. Responses in timing of migration and breeding may differ among species,<br/><br>
and the adaptive significance is not well understood. There is a lack of theoretical understanding<br/><br>
about time-shifts in life-history events due to climatic changes. In the present paper, we use 2<br/><br>
separate modelling approaches to investigate the effects of climate change on migration. We first use<br/><br>
a simple model of flight speed and foraging to explore which factors may influence migration speed<br/><br>
and stopover itinerary. Our second approach derives predictions based on an annual routine model,<br/><br>
where behavioural strategies regarding timing of migration, breeding, moult and number of breeding<br/><br>
attempts are modelled in an environment comprising 4 locations (breeding and wintering sites<br/><br>
and 2 stopover sites). This approach takes account of interrelationships between behaviours and seasons<br/><br>
as a step towards realistic modelling of migratory connectivity. Departure from the wintering site<br/><br>
is advanced in relation to the advancement of spring if the moult is in summer, but not so for species<br/><br>
with a winter moult, while arrival at the breeding site is advanced for both moult scenarios. Timing of<br/><br>
breeding and number of successful broods were also affected by spring advancement, while start of<br/><br>
moult is relatively unaffected by climate change. These optimal solutions under the modelled set of<br/><br>
parameters are discussed with respect to current knowledge of the mechanisms underlying seasonal<br/><br>
timing in birds.},
  author       = {Hedenström, Anders and Barta, Zoltan and Helm, Barbara and Houston, Alasdair I and McNamara, John M and Jonzén, Niclas},
  issn         = {1616-1572},
  keyword      = {Annual routines · Climate change · Phenology · Timing of breeding · Bird migration},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1-2},
  pages        = {79--91},
  publisher    = {Inter-Research},
  series       = {Climate Research},
  title        = {Migration speed and scheduling of annual events by migrating birds in relation to climate change},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr00715},
  volume       = {35},
  year         = {2007},
}