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Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change

Burton, Chantelle ; Lampe, Seppe ; Kelley, Douglas I. ; Thiery, Wim ; Hantson, Stijn ; Christidis, Nikos ; Gudmundsson, Lukas ; Forrest, Matthew ; Burke, Eleanor and Chang, Jinfeng , et al. (2024) In Nature Climate Change 14(11). p.1186-1192
Abstract

Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the... (More)

Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.

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publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Wildfire risk, dynamic vegetation modeling, climate change
in
Nature Climate Change
volume
14
issue
11
pages
1186 - 1192
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • scopus:85201192332
ISSN
1758-678X
DOI
10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2024.
id
95ac95ee-1713-49bf-b663-21bd91b092ea
date added to LUP
2024-11-04 09:49:41
date last changed
2025-04-04 14:40:06
@article{95ac95ee-1713-49bf-b663-21bd91b092ea,
  abstract     = {{<p>Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.</p>}},
  author       = {{Burton, Chantelle and Lampe, Seppe and Kelley, Douglas I. and Thiery, Wim and Hantson, Stijn and Christidis, Nikos and Gudmundsson, Lukas and Forrest, Matthew and Burke, Eleanor and Chang, Jinfeng and Huang, Huilin and Ito, Akihiko and Kou-Giesbrecht, Sian and Lasslop, Gitta and Li, Wei and Nieradzik, Lars and Li, Fang and Chen, Yang and Randerson, James and Reyer, Christopher P.O. and Mengel, Matthias}},
  issn         = {{1758-678X}},
  keywords     = {{Wildfire risk; dynamic vegetation modeling; climate change}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{10}},
  number       = {{11}},
  pages        = {{1186--1192}},
  publisher    = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  series       = {{Nature Climate Change}},
  title        = {{Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w}},
  volume       = {{14}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}