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Broken symmetry and long-term forecasting

Essex, Christopher ; Ilie, Silvana LU and Corless, Robert M. (2007) In Journal of Geophysical Research 112(D24).
Abstract
[1] This paper takes a novel approach to a known basic difficulty with computer simulations of nonlinear dynamical systems relevant to climate modeling. Specifically, we show by minimal examples how small systematic modeling errors might survive averaging over an ensemble of initial conditions. The resulting predictive errors can grow slowly enough initially that they may be overlooked without contradicting known behaviors on middle scales. However, they may nonetheless be significant on long timescales, given our current knowledge. Mathematical symmetry, which has been investigated for improving accuracy in computational algorithms, turns out to provide a novel perspective to this issue.
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author
; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Journal of Geophysical Research
volume
112
issue
D24
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • wos:000251526100001
  • scopus:49249136884
ISSN
2156-2202
DOI
10.1029/2007JD008563
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
The information about affiliations in this record was updated in December 2015. The record was previously connected to the following departments: Numerical Analysis (011015004)
id
88199c48-7859-4e4e-8a44-7ed1c6a781a1 (old id 966277)
alternative location
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007JD008563.shtml
date added to LUP
2016-04-01 12:08:12
date last changed
2021-01-06 08:46:18
@article{88199c48-7859-4e4e-8a44-7ed1c6a781a1,
  abstract     = {[1] This paper takes a novel approach to a known basic difficulty with computer simulations of nonlinear dynamical systems relevant to climate modeling. Specifically, we show by minimal examples how small systematic modeling errors might survive averaging over an ensemble of initial conditions. The resulting predictive errors can grow slowly enough initially that they may be overlooked without contradicting known behaviors on middle scales. However, they may nonetheless be significant on long timescales, given our current knowledge. Mathematical symmetry, which has been investigated for improving accuracy in computational algorithms, turns out to provide a novel perspective to this issue.},
  author       = {Essex, Christopher and Ilie, Silvana and Corless, Robert M.},
  issn         = {2156-2202},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {D24},
  publisher    = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  series       = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
  title        = {Broken symmetry and long-term forecasting},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008563},
  doi          = {10.1029/2007JD008563},
  volume       = {112},
  year         = {2007},
}