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Broken symmetry and long-term forecasting

Essex, Christopher; Ilie, Silvana LU and Corless, Robert M. (2007) In Journal of Geophysical Research 112(D24).
Abstract
[1] This paper takes a novel approach to a known basic difficulty with computer simulations of nonlinear dynamical systems relevant to climate modeling. Specifically, we show by minimal examples how small systematic modeling errors might survive averaging over an ensemble of initial conditions. The resulting predictive errors can grow slowly enough initially that they may be overlooked without contradicting known behaviors on middle scales. However, they may nonetheless be significant on long timescales, given our current knowledge. Mathematical symmetry, which has been investigated for improving accuracy in computational algorithms, turns out to provide a novel perspective to this issue.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Journal of Geophysical Research
volume
112
issue
D24
publisher
American Geophysical Union
external identifiers
  • wos:000251526100001
  • scopus:49249136884
ISSN
2156-2202
DOI
10.1029/2007JD008563
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
88199c48-7859-4e4e-8a44-7ed1c6a781a1 (old id 966277)
alternative location
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007JD008563.shtml
date added to LUP
2008-01-29 15:00:15
date last changed
2017-09-10 03:42:11
@article{88199c48-7859-4e4e-8a44-7ed1c6a781a1,
  abstract     = {[1] This paper takes a novel approach to a known basic difficulty with computer simulations of nonlinear dynamical systems relevant to climate modeling. Specifically, we show by minimal examples how small systematic modeling errors might survive averaging over an ensemble of initial conditions. The resulting predictive errors can grow slowly enough initially that they may be overlooked without contradicting known behaviors on middle scales. However, they may nonetheless be significant on long timescales, given our current knowledge. Mathematical symmetry, which has been investigated for improving accuracy in computational algorithms, turns out to provide a novel perspective to this issue.},
  author       = {Essex, Christopher and Ilie, Silvana and Corless, Robert M.},
  issn         = {2156-2202},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {D24},
  publisher    = {American Geophysical Union},
  series       = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
  title        = {Broken symmetry and long-term forecasting},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008563},
  volume       = {112},
  year         = {2007},
}