From hazard detection to risk analytics in southern Africa : Twenty-five years of drought and flood research (2000–2024)
Mathe, Marcio Fernando LU
(2026)
In Progress in Disaster Science
30.
- Abstract
Southern Africa is a global hotspot for hydrometeorological risk, with intensifying droughts and floods increasingly disrupting livelihoods, ecosystems, and infrastructure. This study presents a systematic bibliometric and scientometric synthesis of 1481 peer-reviewed publications on drought and flood hazards published between 2000 and 2024 across the Southern African Development Community. Using a PRISMA-guided workflow, co-authorship, co-citation, and keyword co-occurrence analyses are combined with topic–method mapping and sensitivity testing to examine the structure and evolution of the regional research landscape. Annual publication output increased nearly tenfold, from fewer than 15 studies per year in the early 2000s to over 140... (More)
Southern Africa is a global hotspot for hydrometeorological risk, with intensifying droughts and floods increasingly disrupting livelihoods, ecosystems, and infrastructure. This study presents a systematic bibliometric and scientometric synthesis of 1481 peer-reviewed publications on drought and flood hazards published between 2000 and 2024 across the Southern African Development Community. Using a PRISMA-guided workflow, co-authorship, co-citation, and keyword co-occurrence analyses are combined with topic–method mapping and sensitivity testing to examine the structure and evolution of the regional research landscape. Annual publication output increased nearly tenfold, from fewer than 15 studies per year in the early 2000s to over 140 after 2020 , with distinct surges following the 2015–2016 El Niño drought and Cyclones Idai and Kenneth (2019). Co-word analysis identifies four interconnected research clusters spanning drought diagnostics, flood and catchment-scale hydrology, agriculture and food-security impacts, and risk and adaptation, reflecting a gradual shift toward decision-oriented risk analytics. Despite this progression, explicit compound-hazard analysis, treatment of non-stationarity, and integration of socio-economic and governance dimensions remain limited. Strong geographic asymmetries persist, with South African institutions dominating outputs and several hazard-exposed member states underrepresented. These findings highlight both advances and structural gaps with implications for anticipatory adaptation and regional risk governance.
(Less)
- author
- Mathe, Marcio Fernando
LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2026-04
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Bibliometric mapping, Climate risk and resilience, Drought and flood analysis, Hydrometeorological hazards, Southern Africa
- in
- Progress in Disaster Science
- volume
- 30
- article number
- 100543
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:105032223737
- ISSN
- 2590-0617
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100543
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- Publisher Copyright: © 2026 The Author.
- id
- 974beb3f-3ffc-4742-82f9-7819fd323262
- date added to LUP
- 2026-05-19 13:36:58
- date last changed
- 2026-05-25 08:20:29
@article{974beb3f-3ffc-4742-82f9-7819fd323262,
abstract = {{<p>Southern Africa is a global hotspot for hydrometeorological risk, with intensifying droughts and floods increasingly disrupting livelihoods, ecosystems, and infrastructure. This study presents a systematic bibliometric and scientometric synthesis of 1481 peer-reviewed publications on drought and flood hazards published between 2000 and 2024 across the Southern African Development Community. Using a PRISMA-guided workflow, co-authorship, co-citation, and keyword co-occurrence analyses are combined with topic–method mapping and sensitivity testing to examine the structure and evolution of the regional research landscape. Annual publication output increased nearly tenfold, from fewer than 15 studies per year in the early 2000s to over 140 after 2020 , with distinct surges following the 2015–2016 El Niño drought and Cyclones Idai and Kenneth (2019). Co-word analysis identifies four interconnected research clusters spanning drought diagnostics, flood and catchment-scale hydrology, agriculture and food-security impacts, and risk and adaptation, reflecting a gradual shift toward decision-oriented risk analytics. Despite this progression, explicit compound-hazard analysis, treatment of non-stationarity, and integration of socio-economic and governance dimensions remain limited. Strong geographic asymmetries persist, with South African institutions dominating outputs and several hazard-exposed member states underrepresented. These findings highlight both advances and structural gaps with implications for anticipatory adaptation and regional risk governance.</p>}},
author = {{Mathe, Marcio Fernando}},
issn = {{2590-0617}},
keywords = {{Bibliometric mapping; Climate risk and resilience; Drought and flood analysis; Hydrometeorological hazards; Southern Africa}},
language = {{eng}},
publisher = {{Elsevier}},
series = {{Progress in Disaster Science}},
title = {{From hazard detection to risk analytics in southern Africa : Twenty-five years of drought and flood research (2000–2024)}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100543}},
doi = {{10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100543}},
volume = {{30}},
year = {{2026}},
}