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How large is the global population when limited by long term sustainable global metal-, energy-and phosphate supply ?

Sverdrup, Harald U. ; Olafsdottir, Anna Hulda and Koca, Deniz LU orcid (2020)
Abstract
The WORLD7 model was used to make an assessment for the sustainable metal usage and the resources available within the planetary limits to human society, in order to estimate demands on recycling and maximum metal consumption per capita for different metals. The metals were selected for their importance in society. The calculations of critical metal use show that we have substantial metal usage above the sustainable rates, needing a reduction in net use of more than 95% for many metals. Alternatively, the issue was turned around, asking, if this is how much metals that is available, how many people for how long can we support with it? A sustainability gap can be determined, alternatively, that the global population needs to come down in... (More)
The WORLD7 model was used to make an assessment for the sustainable metal usage and the resources available within the planetary limits to human society, in order to estimate demands on recycling and maximum metal consumption per capita for different metals. The metals were selected for their importance in society. The calculations of critical metal use show that we have substantial metal usage above the sustainable rates, needing a reduction in net use of more than 95% for many metals. Alternatively, the issue was turned around, asking, if this is how much metals that is available, how many people for how long can we support with it? A sustainability gap can be determined, alternatively, that the global population needs to come down in size to somewhere between 1.5-2 billion people, combined with improved recycling efficiencies. How a global population contraction can take place is not discussed. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; and
organization
publishing date
type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Sustainable resource use, system overshoot, sustainable global population, planetary limits
host publication
System Dynamics Society, International Conference Proceedings
pages
19 pages
publisher
System Dynamics Society
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
98000727-8d1f-46bb-bb3d-6b7854cf3572
alternative location
https://proceedings.systemdynamics.org/2020/papers/P1345.pdf
date added to LUP
2021-04-23 14:29:41
date last changed
2023-02-21 10:03:04
@inproceedings{98000727-8d1f-46bb-bb3d-6b7854cf3572,
  abstract     = {{The WORLD7 model was used to make an assessment for the sustainable metal usage and the resources available within the planetary limits to human society, in order to estimate demands on recycling and maximum metal consumption per capita for different metals. The metals were selected for their importance in society. The calculations of critical metal use show that we have substantial metal usage above the sustainable rates, needing a reduction in net use of more than 95% for many metals. Alternatively, the issue was turned around, asking, if this is how much metals that is available, how many people for how long can we support with it? A sustainability gap can be determined, alternatively, that the global population needs to come down in size to somewhere between 1.5-2 billion people, combined with improved recycling efficiencies. How a global population contraction can take place is not discussed.}},
  author       = {{Sverdrup, Harald U. and Olafsdottir, Anna Hulda and Koca, Deniz}},
  booktitle    = {{System Dynamics Society, International Conference Proceedings}},
  keywords     = {{Sustainable resource use; system overshoot; sustainable global population; planetary limits}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  publisher    = {{System Dynamics Society}},
  title        = {{How large is the global population when limited by long term sustainable global metal-, energy-and phosphate supply ?}},
  url          = {{https://proceedings.systemdynamics.org/2020/papers/P1345.pdf}},
  year         = {{2020}},
}