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Traffic dynamics during the 2019 Kincade wildfire evacuation

Rohaert, Arthur LU ; Kuligowski, Erica D. ; Ardinge, Adam ; Wahlqvist, Jonathan LU ; Gwynne, Steven M.V. ; Kimball, Amanda ; Bénichou, Noureddine and Ronchi, Enrico LU orcid (2023) In Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 116.
Abstract

Traffic models are a useful tool for evacuation planning and management in case of wildfires. Despite the availability of several evacuation models, the number of datasets that can be used for their calibration and validation is limited. This paper presents key traffic flow data collected during the 2019 Kincade Fire. The data (69 116 data points from 24 locations) have been sourced from the Performance Measurement System of the California Department of Transportation. A set of commonly used models that describe the relationships between speed, flow and density has been fit to the data and compared to the model from the Highway Capacity Manual. In evacuation scenarios, the vehicle speed is about 3.5 km/h lower in comparison with the... (More)

Traffic models are a useful tool for evacuation planning and management in case of wildfires. Despite the availability of several evacuation models, the number of datasets that can be used for their calibration and validation is limited. This paper presents key traffic flow data collected during the 2019 Kincade Fire. The data (69 116 data points from 24 locations) have been sourced from the Performance Measurement System of the California Department of Transportation. A set of commonly used models that describe the relationships between speed, flow and density has been fit to the data and compared to the model from the Highway Capacity Manual. In evacuation scenarios, the vehicle speed is about 3.5 km/h lower in comparison with the speed in routine scenarios, both for low and high traffic density. This demonstrates that dedicated models are needed for an accurate estimation of traffic evacuation times.

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author
; ; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Evacuation, Evacuation traffic, Kincade Fire, Traffic modeling, Wildfire, Wildland-urban interface
in
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
volume
116
article number
103610
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:85147259627
ISSN
1361-9209
DOI
10.1016/j.trd.2023.103610
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
98a015cf-1f02-4874-836b-1346110f4e07
date added to LUP
2023-02-20 15:32:07
date last changed
2023-02-20 15:32:07
@article{98a015cf-1f02-4874-836b-1346110f4e07,
  abstract     = {{<p>Traffic models are a useful tool for evacuation planning and management in case of wildfires. Despite the availability of several evacuation models, the number of datasets that can be used for their calibration and validation is limited. This paper presents key traffic flow data collected during the 2019 Kincade Fire. The data (69 116 data points from 24 locations) have been sourced from the Performance Measurement System of the California Department of Transportation. A set of commonly used models that describe the relationships between speed, flow and density has been fit to the data and compared to the model from the Highway Capacity Manual. In evacuation scenarios, the vehicle speed is about 3.5 km/h lower in comparison with the speed in routine scenarios, both for low and high traffic density. This demonstrates that dedicated models are needed for an accurate estimation of traffic evacuation times.</p>}},
  author       = {{Rohaert, Arthur and Kuligowski, Erica D. and Ardinge, Adam and Wahlqvist, Jonathan and Gwynne, Steven M.V. and Kimball, Amanda and Bénichou, Noureddine and Ronchi, Enrico}},
  issn         = {{1361-9209}},
  keywords     = {{Evacuation; Evacuation traffic; Kincade Fire; Traffic modeling; Wildfire; Wildland-urban interface}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  publisher    = {{Elsevier}},
  series       = {{Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment}},
  title        = {{Traffic dynamics during the 2019 Kincade wildfire evacuation}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2023.103610}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.trd.2023.103610}},
  volume       = {{116}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}