Calibrating the Wildfire Decision Model using hybrid choice modelling
(2020) In International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 50.- Abstract
- Wildfire occurrences is creating serious challenges for fire and emergency response services and a diverse range of communities around the world due to the increment of the occurrence of these disasters. As such, understanding the physical and social dynamics characterizing wildfires events is paramount to reduce the risk of these natural disasters. As such, one of the main challenges is to understand how households perceive wildfires and respond to them as part of the evacuation process. In this work, the Wildfire Decision Model originally proposed in Lovreglio et al. [1] is calibrated using a hybrid choice model formulation. The Wildfire Decision Model is a newly developed behavioural choice model for large-scale wildfire evacuations... (More)
- Wildfire occurrences is creating serious challenges for fire and emergency response services and a diverse range of communities around the world due to the increment of the occurrence of these disasters. As such, understanding the physical and social dynamics characterizing wildfires events is paramount to reduce the risk of these natural disasters. As such, one of the main challenges is to understand how households perceive wildfires and respond to them as part of the evacuation process. In this work, the Wildfire Decision Model originally proposed in Lovreglio et al. [1] is calibrated using a hybrid choice model formulation. The Wildfire Decision Model is a newly developed behavioural choice model for large-scale wildfire evacuations based on the estimation of the risk perceived by households and the impact that this has on the decision-making process. This model is calibrated using a hybrid choice modelling solution and survey data collected after the 2016 Chimney Tops 2 wildfire in Tennessee, USA. The proposed model shows good agreement with the preliminary findings available in the wildfire evacuation literature; namely, the perceived risk is affected by both external factors (i.e., warnings and fire cues) and internal factors (i.e., education, previous wildfire evacuation experience and time of residency in a property). (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/9a9c03a9-4149-41d7-b153-c2b74f022d80
- author
- Lovreglio, Ruggiero LU ; Kuligowski, Erica ; Walpole, Emily ; Link, Eirc and Gwynne, Steve LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2020-11
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Evacuation, Household, Hybrid choice, Modelling, Wildfire
- in
- International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
- volume
- 50
- article number
- 101770
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85090280634
- ISSN
- 2212-4209
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101770
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 9a9c03a9-4149-41d7-b153-c2b74f022d80
- date added to LUP
- 2021-01-15 08:02:20
- date last changed
- 2022-07-15 14:56:44
@article{9a9c03a9-4149-41d7-b153-c2b74f022d80,
abstract = {{Wildfire occurrences is creating serious challenges for fire and emergency response services and a diverse range of communities around the world due to the increment of the occurrence of these disasters. As such, understanding the physical and social dynamics characterizing wildfires events is paramount to reduce the risk of these natural disasters. As such, one of the main challenges is to understand how households perceive wildfires and respond to them as part of the evacuation process. In this work, the Wildfire Decision Model originally proposed in Lovreglio et al. [1] is calibrated using a hybrid choice model formulation. The Wildfire Decision Model is a newly developed behavioural choice model for large-scale wildfire evacuations based on the estimation of the risk perceived by households and the impact that this has on the decision-making process. This model is calibrated using a hybrid choice modelling solution and survey data collected after the 2016 Chimney Tops 2 wildfire in Tennessee, USA. The proposed model shows good agreement with the preliminary findings available in the wildfire evacuation literature; namely, the perceived risk is affected by both external factors (i.e., warnings and fire cues) and internal factors (i.e., education, previous wildfire evacuation experience and time of residency in a property).}},
author = {{Lovreglio, Ruggiero and Kuligowski, Erica and Walpole, Emily and Link, Eirc and Gwynne, Steve}},
issn = {{2212-4209}},
keywords = {{Evacuation; Household; Hybrid choice; Modelling; Wildfire}},
language = {{eng}},
publisher = {{Elsevier}},
series = {{International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}},
title = {{Calibrating the Wildfire Decision Model using hybrid choice modelling}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101770}},
doi = {{10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101770}},
volume = {{50}},
year = {{2020}},
}