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Evaluation of CMIP5 models for west and southwest Iran using TOPSIS-based method

Zamani, Reza and Berndtsson, Ronny LU (2019) In Theoretical and Applied Climatology 137(1-2). p.533-543
Abstract

GCMs (general circulation models) are main tools for generating climate projections for climate change research in hydrology and water resources. Accordingly, evaluating the performance of these models in simulating future climate is very important for choice of proper models. In this study, performance of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model series was assessed using a technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS)-based approach together with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), the Taylor skill score (STaylor), and two probability density function (PDF) skill scores. Precipitation and temperature data during 1976 to 2005 from three river basins including Zard River... (More)

GCMs (general circulation models) are main tools for generating climate projections for climate change research in hydrology and water resources. Accordingly, evaluating the performance of these models in simulating future climate is very important for choice of proper models. In this study, performance of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model series was assessed using a technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS)-based approach together with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), the Taylor skill score (STaylor), and two probability density function (PDF) skill scores. Precipitation and temperature data during 1976 to 2005 from three river basins including Zard River (ZR), Bakhtegan (BKH), and Ghareso (GH) in west and southwest Iran were used to select the best model. In general, models showed superiority in simulating temperature over precipitation. Based on the GCM ranking results for the ZR Basin, MIROC-ESM and IPSL-CM5A-LR were selected as the best and the weakest model, respectively. For the BKH Basin, the best model was BCC-CSM1.1 and the weakest IPSL-CM5A-MR and CCSM4. In other words, BCC-CSM1.1 had the maximum relative closeness to ideal solution. Based on the TOPSIS results, BCC-CSM1.1 and CanESM2 were the best models and IPSL-CM5A-MR the weakest model with a minimum relative closeness to the ideal solution in simulating temperature and precipitation for the GH basin. The approach presented in this study can be utilized to select appropriate climate models in other regions for future studies of climate change.

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type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
volume
137
issue
1-2
pages
533 - 543
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • scopus:85053460367
ISSN
0177-798X
DOI
10.1007/s00704-018-2616-0
project
The Middle East in the Contemporary World (MECW)
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
9c407d77-e1db-498e-9202-8412abc73e90
date added to LUP
2018-10-24 09:02:31
date last changed
2020-10-07 06:06:22
@article{9c407d77-e1db-498e-9202-8412abc73e90,
  abstract     = {<p>GCMs (general circulation models) are main tools for generating climate projections for climate change research in hydrology and water resources. Accordingly, evaluating the performance of these models in simulating future climate is very important for choice of proper models. In this study, performance of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model series was assessed using a technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS)-based approach together with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), the Taylor skill score (S<sub>Taylor</sub>), and two probability density function (PDF) skill scores. Precipitation and temperature data during 1976 to 2005 from three river basins including Zard River (ZR), Bakhtegan (BKH), and Ghareso (GH) in west and southwest Iran were used to select the best model. In general, models showed superiority in simulating temperature over precipitation. Based on the GCM ranking results for the ZR Basin, MIROC-ESM and IPSL-CM5A-LR were selected as the best and the weakest model, respectively. For the BKH Basin, the best model was BCC-CSM1.1 and the weakest IPSL-CM5A-MR and CCSM4. In other words, BCC-CSM1.1 had the maximum relative closeness to ideal solution. Based on the TOPSIS results, BCC-CSM1.1 and CanESM2 were the best models and IPSL-CM5A-MR the weakest model with a minimum relative closeness to the ideal solution in simulating temperature and precipitation for the GH basin. The approach presented in this study can be utilized to select appropriate climate models in other regions for future studies of climate change.</p>},
  author       = {Zamani, Reza and Berndtsson, Ronny},
  issn         = {0177-798X},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1-2},
  pages        = {533--543},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  title        = {Evaluation of CMIP5 models for west and southwest Iran using TOPSIS-based method},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2616-0},
  doi          = {10.1007/s00704-018-2616-0},
  volume       = {137},
  year         = {2019},
}