Skip to main content

Lund University Publications

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

An assessment of climate extremes in Mbale Municipality in Eastern Uganda

George, Oriangi LU ; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano ; Elena, Ridolfi ; Alex, Nimusiima ; Bamutaze, Yazidhi ; Jonas, Ardö LU orcid and Pilesjö, Petter LU (2023) p.301-321
Abstract

This study investigated historic and future characteristics of precipitation periods in Mbale Municipality. Observed historic (1982–2014) and modeled future (2021–50) precipitation data were analyzed using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Modeled data depict a likelihood of more frequent extremely wet and dry periods in near future as compared to historic period. In particular, there is a likelihood of more frequent extremely wet periods in 2020s and 2030s and more frequent extremely dry periods during 2030s and 2040s as opposed to findings from regional z-indices. Both historic and future precipitation extremes are pronounced between August and January. These findings imply that livelihoods in Mbale are likely to be threatened... (More)

This study investigated historic and future characteristics of precipitation periods in Mbale Municipality. Observed historic (1982–2014) and modeled future (2021–50) precipitation data were analyzed using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Modeled data depict a likelihood of more frequent extremely wet and dry periods in near future as compared to historic period. In particular, there is a likelihood of more frequent extremely wet periods in 2020s and 2030s and more frequent extremely dry periods during 2030s and 2040s as opposed to findings from regional z-indices. Both historic and future precipitation extremes are pronounced between August and January. These findings imply that livelihoods in Mbale are likely to be threatened by precipitation extremes. Thus, researchers, practitioners, and policy makers need to assess influential factors that can enhance resilience. In conclusion, localized rather than regional indices are more able to distill local conditions, at the same time provide more accurate predictions of future extremes.

(Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Climate, Extreme precipitation, Index, Mbale, SPI, Uganda
host publication
Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Risks, and Disasters
pages
21 pages
publisher
ScienceDirect, Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:85176365315
ISBN
9780128191019
DOI
10.1016/B978-0-12-819101-9.00005-4
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
id
9d450aee-533a-47fa-9e63-26dae4880e6a
date added to LUP
2024-01-11 11:22:31
date last changed
2024-01-11 11:24:24
@inbook{9d450aee-533a-47fa-9e63-26dae4880e6a,
  abstract     = {{<p>This study investigated historic and future characteristics of precipitation periods in Mbale Municipality. Observed historic (1982–2014) and modeled future (2021–50) precipitation data were analyzed using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Modeled data depict a likelihood of more frequent extremely wet and dry periods in near future as compared to historic period. In particular, there is a likelihood of more frequent extremely wet periods in 2020s and 2030s and more frequent extremely dry periods during 2030s and 2040s as opposed to findings from regional z-indices. Both historic and future precipitation extremes are pronounced between August and January. These findings imply that livelihoods in Mbale are likely to be threatened by precipitation extremes. Thus, researchers, practitioners, and policy makers need to assess influential factors that can enhance resilience. In conclusion, localized rather than regional indices are more able to distill local conditions, at the same time provide more accurate predictions of future extremes.</p>}},
  author       = {{George, Oriangi and Di Baldassarre, Giuliano and Elena, Ridolfi and Alex, Nimusiima and Bamutaze, Yazidhi and Jonas, Ardö and Pilesjö, Petter}},
  booktitle    = {{Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Risks, and Disasters}},
  isbn         = {{9780128191019}},
  keywords     = {{Climate; Extreme precipitation; Index; Mbale; SPI; Uganda}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{01}},
  pages        = {{301--321}},
  publisher    = {{ScienceDirect, Elsevier}},
  title        = {{An assessment of climate extremes in Mbale Municipality in Eastern Uganda}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-819101-9.00005-4}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/B978-0-12-819101-9.00005-4}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}