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Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production

Müller, Christoph LU ; Elliott, Joshua ; Chryssanthacopoulos, James ; Deryng, Delphine ; Folberth, Christian ; Pugh, Thomas A.M. LU and Schmid, Erwin (2015) In Environmental Research Letters 10(12).
Abstract

Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization.... (More)

Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate ∼81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure countries.

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author
; ; ; ; ; and
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
AgMIP, agriculture, carbon dioxide, climate change, climate mitigation, crop model, ISI-MIP
in
Environmental Research Letters
volume
10
issue
12
article number
125004
publisher
IOP Publishing
external identifiers
  • scopus:84952936820
ISSN
1748-9318
DOI
10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125004
language
English
LU publication?
no
id
9eb9c6a9-32da-4bf3-b52b-88bd303ff458
date added to LUP
2020-11-19 23:18:18
date last changed
2021-01-30 14:15:48
@article{9eb9c6a9-32da-4bf3-b52b-88bd303ff458,
  abstract     = {<p>Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate ∼81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure countries.</p>},
  author       = {Müller, Christoph and Elliott, Joshua and Chryssanthacopoulos, James and Deryng, Delphine and Folberth, Christian and Pugh, Thomas A.M. and Schmid, Erwin},
  issn         = {1748-9318},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {11},
  number       = {12},
  publisher    = {IOP Publishing},
  series       = {Environmental Research Letters},
  title        = {Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125004},
  doi          = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125004},
  volume       = {10},
  year         = {2015},
}