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A temporal analysis of the Brazilian water-energy nexus: Historical legacies, present challenges, and future pathways

Fontenelle, Ana Luiza Pimenta LU orcid (2025)
Abstract
Brazil’s electricity system remains profoundly shaped by its historical reliance on hydropower, which has repeatedly exposed the country to crises during periods of drought. This thesis examines the water–energy nexus in Brazil from a temporal perspective, showing how past legacies, present vulnerabilities, and future pathways are interconnected. A review of the literature reveals that nexus studies frequently overlook temporal dimensions, prompting the proposal of a temporal understanding as a conceptual framework. The historical analysis traces how coal scarcity, river abundance, and foreign concessionary companies during the early electrification period established hydropower dominance and water allocation priorities that favored energy... (More)
Brazil’s electricity system remains profoundly shaped by its historical reliance on hydropower, which has repeatedly exposed the country to crises during periods of drought. This thesis examines the water–energy nexus in Brazil from a temporal perspective, showing how past legacies, present vulnerabilities, and future pathways are interconnected. A review of the literature reveals that nexus studies frequently overlook temporal dimensions, prompting the proposal of a temporal understanding as a conceptual framework. The historical analysis traces how coal scarcity, river abundance, and foreign concessionary companies during the early electrification period established hydropower dominance and water allocation priorities that favored energy over other uses. At the urban scale, the case of S˜ao Paulo illustrates the dynamics of a water dichotomy, where scarcity and excess coexist, repeatedly exposing vulnerable populations to overlapping risks of droughts and floods. These vulnerabilities stem from historical choices that prioritized hydropower and urban expansion over the preservation of water bodies, and they continue to shape the city’s capacity to adapt to current and future climate pressures. The thesis also reviews the electricity crises of 2001, 2014–2015, 2021, and 2024–2025 to evaluate the role of diversification in the power sector. The analysis shows that while diversification has advanced, reservoirs remain indispensable for balancing the system, making hydropower dependence more reconfigured than reduced. Finally, it identifies institutional and governance barriers that limit adaptive capacity, arguing that the persistence of hydro-dependence reflects structural vulnerabilities that diversification alone cannot resolve. Overall, the thesis contributes theoretically by advancing temporal understanding and water dichotomy concepts for nexus research, empirically by tracing Brazil’s electrification, diversif ication and crisis history, and critically by demonstrating that diversification has reconfigured rather than reduced hydropower dependence, keeping reservoirs at the core of system reliability and governance debates. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
supervisor
opponent
  • Prof. Prestrelo de Oliveria, Cristiano, Federal Univer. of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.
organization
publishing date
type
Thesis
publication status
published
subject
keywords
water-energy nexus, energy planning, water crises, energy crises, diversification
publisher
Water Resources Engineering, Lund University
defense location
Lecture Hall V:C, building V, Klas Anshelms väg 14, Faculty of Engineering LTH, Lund University, Lund. The dissertation will be live streamed, but part of the premises is to be excluded from the live stream.
defense date
2025-11-17 13:00:00
ISBN
978-91-8104-721-9
978-91-8104-720-2
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
a4fa5b68-d072-4237-961a-1713e1278489
date added to LUP
2025-10-22 18:57:50
date last changed
2025-10-23 15:26:47
@phdthesis{a4fa5b68-d072-4237-961a-1713e1278489,
  abstract     = {{Brazil’s electricity system remains profoundly shaped by its historical reliance on hydropower, which has repeatedly exposed the country to crises during periods of drought. This thesis examines the water–energy nexus in Brazil from a temporal perspective, showing how past legacies, present vulnerabilities, and future pathways are interconnected. A review of the literature reveals that nexus studies frequently overlook temporal dimensions, prompting the proposal of a temporal understanding as a conceptual framework. The historical analysis traces how coal scarcity, river abundance, and foreign concessionary companies during the early electrification period established hydropower dominance and water allocation priorities that favored energy over other uses. At the urban scale, the case of S˜ao Paulo illustrates the dynamics of a water dichotomy, where scarcity and excess coexist, repeatedly exposing vulnerable populations to overlapping risks of droughts and floods. These vulnerabilities stem from historical choices that prioritized hydropower and urban expansion over the preservation of water bodies, and they continue to shape the city’s capacity to adapt to current and future climate pressures. The thesis also reviews the electricity crises of 2001, 2014–2015, 2021, and 2024–2025 to evaluate the role of diversification in the power sector. The analysis shows that while diversification has advanced, reservoirs remain indispensable for balancing the system, making hydropower dependence more reconfigured than reduced. Finally, it identifies institutional and governance barriers that limit adaptive capacity, arguing that the persistence of hydro-dependence reflects structural vulnerabilities that diversification alone cannot resolve. Overall, the thesis contributes theoretically by advancing temporal understanding and water dichotomy concepts for nexus research, empirically by tracing Brazil’s electrification, diversif ication and crisis history, and critically by demonstrating that diversification has reconfigured rather than reduced hydropower dependence, keeping reservoirs at the core of system reliability and governance debates.}},
  author       = {{Fontenelle, Ana Luiza Pimenta}},
  isbn         = {{978-91-8104-721-9}},
  keywords     = {{water-energy nexus; energy planning; water crises; energy crises; diversification}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  publisher    = {{Water Resources Engineering, Lund University}},
  school       = {{Lund University}},
  title        = {{A temporal analysis of the Brazilian water-energy nexus: Historical legacies, present challenges, and future pathways}},
  url          = {{https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/231071431/e-nailing_ex_Ana.pdf}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}