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A Static-99R Validation Study on Individuals With Mental Disorders : 5 to 20 Years of Fixed Follow-Up After Sexual Offenses

Baudin, Christian ; Nilsson, Thomas LU ; Sturup, Joakim ; Wallinius, Märta LU and Andiné, Peter (2021) In Frontiers in Psychology 12.
Abstract

‘The Static-99R is one of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for individuals convicted of sexual offenses. It has been validated for use on many populations, but few studies specifically target and describe individuals with mental disorders. Additionally, research on the discriminative properties (how well the instrument separates recidivists from non-recidivists) of the instrument over longer follow-up periods is scarce. This article evaluated the validity of the Static-99R using a cohort of individuals with mental disorders convicted of sexual offenses in Sweden (N = 146) with fixed 5-year (n = 100), 10-year (n = 91), 15-year (n = 79), and 20-year (n = 36) follow-up periods. A Static-99R cut score of 6 demonstrated the... (More)

‘The Static-99R is one of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for individuals convicted of sexual offenses. It has been validated for use on many populations, but few studies specifically target and describe individuals with mental disorders. Additionally, research on the discriminative properties (how well the instrument separates recidivists from non-recidivists) of the instrument over longer follow-up periods is scarce. This article evaluated the validity of the Static-99R using a cohort of individuals with mental disorders convicted of sexual offenses in Sweden (N = 146) with fixed 5-year (n = 100), 10-year (n = 91), 15-year (n = 79), and 20-year (n = 36) follow-up periods. A Static-99R cut score of 6 demonstrated the highest Youden index, maximizing sensitivity (72.7%) and specificity (74.2%), with 25.8% of recidivists correctly assumed to reoffend sexually and 95.7% of non-recidivists correctly assumed not to. The Static-99R instrument demonstrated adequate discrimination (AUC = 0.79, CI 95% = 0.70–0.87, and OR = 1.45, CI 95% = 1.14–1.84, p < 0.001, 5-year fixed follow-up), with only marginal differences for 10-, 15-, and 20-year fixed follow-up (AUC = 0.73, 0.74, and 0.74 and OR = 1.31, 1.36, and 1.40, respectively). Calibration (quantifying risk and correspondence with the instrument’s norms) was acceptable (Brier = 0.088, P/E = 0.70, E/O = 1.43), with the routine sample norms displaying a decisively better fit to the study cohort compared to the high-risk/high-need sample norms. The results affirm the recommendation that, when in doubt and where there is no recent local norm group large enough available, the Static-99R routine sample found in the evaluators’ workbook should be used.

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author
; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
calibration, discrimination, mental disorder, risk, risk assessment, sex offender, Static-99R, validation
in
Frontiers in Psychology
volume
12
article number
625996
publisher
Frontiers Media S. A.
external identifiers
  • pmid:33603706
  • scopus:85100849814
ISSN
1664-1078
DOI
10.3389/fpsyg.2021.625996
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
a8a12420-bda2-40e3-8cd2-f14b3a5f4883
date added to LUP
2021-03-02 07:51:54
date last changed
2021-06-08 03:56:50
@article{a8a12420-bda2-40e3-8cd2-f14b3a5f4883,
  abstract     = {<p>‘The Static-99R is one of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for individuals convicted of sexual offenses. It has been validated for use on many populations, but few studies specifically target and describe individuals with mental disorders. Additionally, research on the discriminative properties (how well the instrument separates recidivists from non-recidivists) of the instrument over longer follow-up periods is scarce. This article evaluated the validity of the Static-99R using a cohort of individuals with mental disorders convicted of sexual offenses in Sweden (N = 146) with fixed 5-year (n = 100), 10-year (n = 91), 15-year (n = 79), and 20-year (n = 36) follow-up periods. A Static-99R cut score of 6 demonstrated the highest Youden index, maximizing sensitivity (72.7%) and specificity (74.2%), with 25.8% of recidivists correctly assumed to reoffend sexually and 95.7% of non-recidivists correctly assumed not to. The Static-99R instrument demonstrated adequate discrimination (AUC = 0.79, CI 95% = 0.70–0.87, and OR = 1.45, CI 95% = 1.14–1.84, p &lt; 0.001, 5-year fixed follow-up), with only marginal differences for 10-, 15-, and 20-year fixed follow-up (AUC = 0.73, 0.74, and 0.74 and OR = 1.31, 1.36, and 1.40, respectively). Calibration (quantifying risk and correspondence with the instrument’s norms) was acceptable (Brier = 0.088, P/E = 0.70, E/O = 1.43), with the routine sample norms displaying a decisively better fit to the study cohort compared to the high-risk/high-need sample norms. The results affirm the recommendation that, when in doubt and where there is no recent local norm group large enough available, the Static-99R routine sample found in the evaluators’ workbook should be used.</p>},
  author       = {Baudin, Christian and Nilsson, Thomas and Sturup, Joakim and Wallinius, Märta and Andiné, Peter},
  issn         = {1664-1078},
  language     = {eng},
  publisher    = {Frontiers Media S. A.},
  series       = {Frontiers in Psychology},
  title        = {A Static-99R Validation Study on Individuals With Mental Disorders : 5 to 20 Years of Fixed Follow-Up After Sexual Offenses},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.625996},
  doi          = {10.3389/fpsyg.2021.625996},
  volume       = {12},
  year         = {2021},
}