An assessment of metal supply sustainability as an input to policy: security of supply extraction rates, stocks-in-use, recycling, and risk of scarcity
Sverdrup, Harald ; Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala and Koca, Deniz LU
(2017)
In Journal of Cleaner Production
140.
p.359-372
- Abstract
- The integrated model WORLD and Hubbert's model were used for assessment of future supply for different metals: iron, nickel, manganese, chromium, molybdenum, tantalum, niobium, rhenium, zir- conium, tungsten, cobalt, copper, zinc, lead, aluminium and the technology metals derived from copper ezinc mining (tellurium, selenium, gallium, indium, antimony, bismuth, tin, germanium, selenium). The connections between their productions were mapped. The literature was reviewed for best estimates of total recoverable amounts, and best estimates were made, considering extraction costs and extractability. Peak years were determined for all the metals studied. Most metals seem to reach peak production during the next 4 decades, suggesting a risk for... (More)
- The integrated model WORLD and Hubbert's model were used for assessment of future supply for different metals: iron, nickel, manganese, chromium, molybdenum, tantalum, niobium, rhenium, zir- conium, tungsten, cobalt, copper, zinc, lead, aluminium and the technology metals derived from copper ezinc mining (tellurium, selenium, gallium, indium, antimony, bismuth, tin, germanium, selenium). The connections between their productions were mapped. The literature was reviewed for best estimates of total recoverable amounts, and best estimates were made, considering extraction costs and extractability. Peak years were determined for all the metals studied. Most metals seem to reach peak production during the next 4 decades, suggesting a risk for shortages in the near future. When supplies from mines dwindle, measures such as recycling from society's stock, substitutions to other materials than metals when this is possible, and stopped dissipative uses, will become important mitigation tools, calling for reorganization of resource policies world-wide. Present resource policies at all levels (regional, national, international) are to a large degree inadequate and need thorough review. The relevance of the Hubbert's model as an assessment tool was done. It is useful for all metals taken from independent ore deposits, whereas the method appears to be less suited for extraction of dependent metals unless the curve is derived from the Hubbert's model applied on the parent source. In such times, strategic thinking and strategic leadership based in systems thinking will be required. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/7988304
- author
- Sverdrup, Harald
; Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala
and Koca, Deniz
LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2017-01
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Hubbert's model, Dynamic modelling, Sustainability, Metals, Peak metals
- in
- Journal of Cleaner Production
- volume
- 140
- pages
- 359 - 372
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:84940836730
- wos:000388775100033
- ISSN
- 0959-6526
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.06.085
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- e-published ahead of print 13 July 2015
- id
- b22f09e6-e237-4599-a176-a32d5d72281e (old id 7988304)
- date added to LUP
- 2016-04-01 13:21:11
- date last changed
- 2023-01-03 22:24:48
@article{b22f09e6-e237-4599-a176-a32d5d72281e,
abstract = {{The integrated model WORLD and Hubbert's model were used for assessment of future supply for different metals: iron, nickel, manganese, chromium, molybdenum, tantalum, niobium, rhenium, zir- conium, tungsten, cobalt, copper, zinc, lead, aluminium and the technology metals derived from copper ezinc mining (tellurium, selenium, gallium, indium, antimony, bismuth, tin, germanium, selenium). The connections between their productions were mapped. The literature was reviewed for best estimates of total recoverable amounts, and best estimates were made, considering extraction costs and extractability. Peak years were determined for all the metals studied. Most metals seem to reach peak production during the next 4 decades, suggesting a risk for shortages in the near future. When supplies from mines dwindle, measures such as recycling from society's stock, substitutions to other materials than metals when this is possible, and stopped dissipative uses, will become important mitigation tools, calling for reorganization of resource policies world-wide. Present resource policies at all levels (regional, national, international) are to a large degree inadequate and need thorough review. The relevance of the Hubbert's model as an assessment tool was done. It is useful for all metals taken from independent ore deposits, whereas the method appears to be less suited for extraction of dependent metals unless the curve is derived from the Hubbert's model applied on the parent source. In such times, strategic thinking and strategic leadership based in systems thinking will be required.}},
author = {{Sverdrup, Harald and Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala and Koca, Deniz}},
issn = {{0959-6526}},
keywords = {{Hubbert's model; Dynamic modelling; Sustainability; Metals; Peak metals}},
language = {{eng}},
pages = {{359--372}},
publisher = {{Elsevier}},
series = {{Journal of Cleaner Production}},
title = {{An assessment of metal supply sustainability as an input to policy: security of supply extraction rates, stocks-in-use, recycling, and risk of scarcity}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.06.085}},
doi = {{10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.06.085}},
volume = {{140}},
year = {{2017}},
}