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Long on expectations, short on supply : Regional lithium imbalances and the effects of trade allocations by China, the EU, and the USA

Xia, Qifan LU ; Månberger, André LU and Du, Debin (2025) In Cell Reports Sustainability 2(6).
Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) are vital for a decarbonized society, but the rapid growth of the EV market highlights an impending lithium supply crisis. This study integrates supply-demand analysis with trade network simulations, using eight lithium demand scenarios and two supply scenarios to examine regional lithium dynamics and the impact of international trade. Results show that while domestic lithium production in China, Europe, and the USA—especially in Europe, where production may grow 10-fold between 2025 and 2030—will increase, it will not fully meet demand. The regions differ in their paths to self-sufficiency: China may reduce import reliance with lower battery capacity, the USA could ease shortages under a high-supply scenario,... (More)

Electric vehicles (EVs) are vital for a decarbonized society, but the rapid growth of the EV market highlights an impending lithium supply crisis. This study integrates supply-demand analysis with trade network simulations, using eight lithium demand scenarios and two supply scenarios to examine regional lithium dynamics and the impact of international trade. Results show that while domestic lithium production in China, Europe, and the USA—especially in Europe, where production may grow 10-fold between 2025 and 2030—will increase, it will not fully meet demand. The regions differ in their paths to self-sufficiency: China may reduce import reliance with lower battery capacity, the USA could ease shortages under a high-supply scenario, and Europe faces the largest deficit. Maximizing imports could bring Europe closer to balance than the USA, but interregional trade complicates this. Governance is urgently needed to prevent competition for scarce resources from hindering low-carbon technology adoption.

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author
; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
China, decarbonization, demand, electric vehicle, EU, lithium mining, scenario analysis, supply, trade simulation, USA
in
Cell Reports Sustainability
volume
2
issue
6
article number
100404
pages
16 pages
publisher
Cell Press
external identifiers
  • scopus:105008123222
DOI
10.1016/j.crsus.2025.100404
project
Mistra Governing critical raw material supply chains for a sustainable transition
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2025 The Author(s)
id
b8f76c5d-537d-44db-a04d-2a6fab57e0e2
date added to LUP
2025-09-10 10:54:44
date last changed
2025-10-14 12:33:48
@article{b8f76c5d-537d-44db-a04d-2a6fab57e0e2,
  abstract     = {{<p>Electric vehicles (EVs) are vital for a decarbonized society, but the rapid growth of the EV market highlights an impending lithium supply crisis. This study integrates supply-demand analysis with trade network simulations, using eight lithium demand scenarios and two supply scenarios to examine regional lithium dynamics and the impact of international trade. Results show that while domestic lithium production in China, Europe, and the USA—especially in Europe, where production may grow 10-fold between 2025 and 2030—will increase, it will not fully meet demand. The regions differ in their paths to self-sufficiency: China may reduce import reliance with lower battery capacity, the USA could ease shortages under a high-supply scenario, and Europe faces the largest deficit. Maximizing imports could bring Europe closer to balance than the USA, but interregional trade complicates this. Governance is urgently needed to prevent competition for scarce resources from hindering low-carbon technology adoption.</p>}},
  author       = {{Xia, Qifan and Månberger, André and Du, Debin}},
  keywords     = {{China; decarbonization; demand; electric vehicle; EU; lithium mining; scenario analysis; supply; trade simulation; USA}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{06}},
  number       = {{6}},
  publisher    = {{Cell Press}},
  series       = {{Cell Reports Sustainability}},
  title        = {{Long on expectations, short on supply : Regional lithium imbalances and the effects of trade allocations by China, the EU, and the USA}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crsus.2025.100404}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.crsus.2025.100404}},
  volume       = {{2}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}