Advanced

Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators

Rabin, Sam S. ; Alexander, Peter ; Henry, Roslyn ; Anthoni, Peter ; Pugh, Thomas A.M. LU ; Rounsevell, Mark and Arneth, Almut LU (2020) In Earth System Dynamics 11(2). p.357-376
Abstract

A future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, changing climate, growing human populations, and shifting socioeconomic conditions means that the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. These changes will affect not only agricultural land but terrestrial ecosystems in general. Here, we use the coupled land use and vegetation model LandSyMM (Land System Modular Model) to quantify future land use change (LUC) and resulting impacts on ecosystem service indicators relating to carbon sequestration, runoff, biodiversity, and nitrogen pollution. We additionally hold certain variables, such as climate or land use, constant to assess the relative contribution of different drivers to the... (More)

A future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, changing climate, growing human populations, and shifting socioeconomic conditions means that the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. These changes will affect not only agricultural land but terrestrial ecosystems in general. Here, we use the coupled land use and vegetation model LandSyMM (Land System Modular Model) to quantify future land use change (LUC) and resulting impacts on ecosystem service indicators relating to carbon sequestration, runoff, biodiversity, and nitrogen pollution. We additionally hold certain variables, such as climate or land use, constant to assess the relative contribution of different drivers to the projected impacts. Some ecosystem services depend critically on land use and management: for example, carbon storage, the gain in which is more than 2.5 times higher in a low-LUC scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 and Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0; SSP4-60) than a high-LUC one with the same carbon dioxide and climate trajectory (SSP3-60). Other trends are mostly dominated by the direct effects of climate change and carbon dioxide increase. For example, in those two scenarios, extreme high monthly runoff increases across 54% and 53% of land, respectively, with a mean increase of 23% in both. Scenarios in which climate change mitigation is more difficult (SSPs 3 and 5) have the strongest impacts on ecosystem service indicators, such as a loss of 13%-19% of land in biodiversity hotspots and a 28% increase in nitrogen pollution. Evaluating a suite of ecosystem service indicators across scenarios enables the identification of tradeoffs and co-benefits associated with different climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies and socioeconomic developments.

(Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; ; ; ; and
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Earth System Dynamics
volume
11
issue
2
pages
20 pages
publisher
Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
external identifiers
  • scopus:85084301181
ISSN
2190-4979
DOI
10.5194/esd-11-357-2020
language
English
LU publication?
no
id
b9b6c106-8d89-41cf-bae9-dd4fed2095ff
date added to LUP
2020-11-19 22:03:53
date last changed
2021-04-06 04:11:16
@article{b9b6c106-8d89-41cf-bae9-dd4fed2095ff,
  abstract     = {<p>A future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, changing climate, growing human populations, and shifting socioeconomic conditions means that the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. These changes will affect not only agricultural land but terrestrial ecosystems in general. Here, we use the coupled land use and vegetation model LandSyMM (Land System Modular Model) to quantify future land use change (LUC) and resulting impacts on ecosystem service indicators relating to carbon sequestration, runoff, biodiversity, and nitrogen pollution. We additionally hold certain variables, such as climate or land use, constant to assess the relative contribution of different drivers to the projected impacts. Some ecosystem services depend critically on land use and management: for example, carbon storage, the gain in which is more than 2.5 times higher in a low-LUC scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 and Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0; SSP4-60) than a high-LUC one with the same carbon dioxide and climate trajectory (SSP3-60). Other trends are mostly dominated by the direct effects of climate change and carbon dioxide increase. For example, in those two scenarios, extreme high monthly runoff increases across 54% and 53% of land, respectively, with a mean increase of 23% in both. Scenarios in which climate change mitigation is more difficult (SSPs 3 and 5) have the strongest impacts on ecosystem service indicators, such as a loss of 13%-19% of land in biodiversity hotspots and a 28% increase in nitrogen pollution. Evaluating a suite of ecosystem service indicators across scenarios enables the identification of tradeoffs and co-benefits associated with different climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies and socioeconomic developments.</p>},
  author       = {Rabin, Sam S. and Alexander, Peter and Henry, Roslyn and Anthoni, Peter and Pugh, Thomas A.M. and Rounsevell, Mark and Arneth, Almut},
  issn         = {2190-4979},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {04},
  number       = {2},
  pages        = {357--376},
  publisher    = {Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH},
  series       = {Earth System Dynamics},
  title        = {Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020},
  doi          = {10.5194/esd-11-357-2020},
  volume       = {11},
  year         = {2020},
}