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Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe

Kurganskiy, Alexander ; Creer, Simon ; de Vere, Natasha ; Griffith, Gareth W ; Osborne, Nicholas J ; Wheeler, Benedict W ; McInnes, Rachel N ; Clewlow, Yolanda ; Barber, Adam and Brennan, Georgina L LU , et al. (2021) In Science Advances 7(13).
Abstract

Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season's severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate... (More)

Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season's severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Science Advances
volume
7
issue
13
article number
eabd7658
pages
11 pages
publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
external identifiers
  • pmid:33771862
  • scopus:85103532748
ISSN
2375-2548
DOI
10.1126/sciadv.abd7658
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
be45ebde-e2ce-4729-a5ca-83fa61a867cc
date added to LUP
2021-04-07 12:52:14
date last changed
2021-06-08 03:08:06
@article{be45ebde-e2ce-4729-a5ca-83fa61a867cc,
  abstract     = {<p>Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season's severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.</p>},
  author       = {Kurganskiy, Alexander and Creer, Simon and de Vere, Natasha and Griffith, Gareth W and Osborne, Nicholas J and Wheeler, Benedict W and McInnes, Rachel N and Clewlow, Yolanda and Barber, Adam and Brennan, Georgina L and Hanlon, Helen M and Hegarty, Matthew and Potter, Caitlin and Rowney, Francis and Adams-Groom, Beverley and Petch, Geoff M and Pashley, Catherine H and Satchwell, Jack and de Weger, Letty A and Rasmussen, Karen and Oliver, Gilles and Sindt, Charlotte and Bruffaerts, Nicolas and Skjøth, Carsten A},
  issn         = {2375-2548},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {13},
  publisher    = {American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)},
  series       = {Science Advances},
  title        = {Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd7658},
  doi          = {10.1126/sciadv.abd7658},
  volume       = {7},
  year         = {2021},
}