Navigating Climate Risks in Rail Transport : Weather Impacts, Governance Challenges, and Climate Adaptation Approaches
Ochsner, Michelle LU
(2026)
- Abstract
- Railways play an important role in the energy transition by offering a low-carbon, energy-efficient means of transporting goods, people, and services. However, this role is increasingly at risk as extreme weather events associated with a changing climate grow in severity and frequency, compounded by uncertainties in future climate conditions.
This thesis aims to advance the understanding of climate adaptation processes, using the railway sector in the Swedish context as a lens. By employing an interdisciplinary and mixed-methods approach, I address this aim through six
research articles. Paper I quantifies the impact of weather on railway disruptions, while Paper II quantified the impacts of weather on railway infrastructure.... (More) - Railways play an important role in the energy transition by offering a low-carbon, energy-efficient means of transporting goods, people, and services. However, this role is increasingly at risk as extreme weather events associated with a changing climate grow in severity and frequency, compounded by uncertainties in future climate conditions.
This thesis aims to advance the understanding of climate adaptation processes, using the railway sector in the Swedish context as a lens. By employing an interdisciplinary and mixed-methods approach, I address this aim through six
research articles. Paper I quantifies the impact of weather on railway disruptions, while Paper II quantified the impacts of weather on railway infrastructure. Paper III explores past research trends on the effects of flooding on railway infrastructure. Paper IV builds upon the Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning approach to explore approaches to climate adaptation and the barriers and opportunities to more dynamic adaptation. Paper V utilises interviews to explore the barriers to the implementation of climate adaptation in Sweden. Finally, Paper VI builds upon interviews to understand climate adaptation efforts in Japan, offering an international perspective on climate adaptation approaches and governance.
The research findings indicate that adverse weather conditions – particularly high snow depth, low temperatures, and high wind speeds – currently have the greatest impact on Swedish railway operations and infrastructure, with track assets being the most impacted. Due to climate change, impacts are expected to shift towards those associated with high temperatures and increased rainfall, raising the likelihood of flooding and heat-related faults. Governance challenges – including legislation, resources, prioritisation, and knowledge – hinder climate adaptation. Lessons from climate adaptation approaches highlight the importance of dynamic approaches, underpinning climate adaptation with other domains such as disaster risk reduction and integrating both structural and non-structural measures to support long-term resilience in the railway sector.
The contributions of this thesis are five-fold. I i) provide empirical evidence on the
impacts of weather on railway operations and infrastructure in Sweden, including a baseline for current impacts; ii) offer insights for asset managers to support resilience planning and inform climate adaptation approaches, including the identification of weather-related thresholds; iii) explore a range of climate adaptation approaches and assess their opportunities and limitations in the railway context; iv) disentangle the barriers to climate adaptation within current governance structures; and v) draw upon insights from global perspectives and relate it to Sweden. In doing so, I critically engage with knowledge at the policy and science interface to gain a deeper understanding of how to adapt railway infrastructure to climate change so that railways can provide safe and reliable services for all. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/c0ba6e61-3809-43aa-a6ed-51e3b9da653e
- author
- Ochsner, Michelle
LU
- supervisor
- opponent
-
- Prof. Quinn, Andrew, University of Birmingham, The United Kingdom.
- organization
- publishing date
- 2026
- type
- Thesis
- publication status
- published
- subject
- publisher
- Department of Technology and Society, Lund University
- defense location
- Lecture Hall V:A, building V, Klas Anshelms väg 14, Faculty of Engineering LTH, Lund University, Lund.
- defense date
- 2026-05-13 09:15:00
- ISBN
- 978-91-8104-929-9
- 978-91-8104-930-5
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- c0ba6e61-3809-43aa-a6ed-51e3b9da653e
- date added to LUP
- 2026-03-25 15:04:53
- date last changed
- 2026-04-26 17:52:43
@phdthesis{c0ba6e61-3809-43aa-a6ed-51e3b9da653e,
abstract = {{Railways play an important role in the energy transition by offering a low-carbon, energy-efficient means of transporting goods, people, and services. However, this role is increasingly at risk as extreme weather events associated with a changing climate grow in severity and frequency, compounded by uncertainties in future climate conditions.<br/><br/>This thesis aims to advance the understanding of climate adaptation processes, using the railway sector in the Swedish context as a lens. By employing an interdisciplinary and mixed-methods approach, I address this aim through six<br/>research articles. Paper I quantifies the impact of weather on railway disruptions, while Paper II quantified the impacts of weather on railway infrastructure. Paper III explores past research trends on the effects of flooding on railway infrastructure. Paper IV builds upon the Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning approach to explore approaches to climate adaptation and the barriers and opportunities to more dynamic adaptation. Paper V utilises interviews to explore the barriers to the implementation of climate adaptation in Sweden. Finally, Paper VI builds upon interviews to understand climate adaptation efforts in Japan, offering an international perspective on climate adaptation approaches and governance.<br/><br/>The research findings indicate that adverse weather conditions – particularly high snow depth, low temperatures, and high wind speeds – currently have the greatest impact on Swedish railway operations and infrastructure, with track assets being the most impacted. Due to climate change, impacts are expected to shift towards those associated with high temperatures and increased rainfall, raising the likelihood of flooding and heat-related faults. Governance challenges – including legislation, resources, prioritisation, and knowledge – hinder climate adaptation. Lessons from climate adaptation approaches highlight the importance of dynamic approaches, underpinning climate adaptation with other domains such as disaster risk reduction and integrating both structural and non-structural measures to support long-term resilience in the railway sector.<br/><br/>The contributions of this thesis are five-fold. I i) provide empirical evidence on the<br/>impacts of weather on railway operations and infrastructure in Sweden, including a baseline for current impacts; ii) offer insights for asset managers to support resilience planning and inform climate adaptation approaches, including the identification of weather-related thresholds; iii) explore a range of climate adaptation approaches and assess their opportunities and limitations in the railway context; iv) disentangle the barriers to climate adaptation within current governance structures; and v) draw upon insights from global perspectives and relate it to Sweden. In doing so, I critically engage with knowledge at the policy and science interface to gain a deeper understanding of how to adapt railway infrastructure to climate change so that railways can provide safe and reliable services for all.}},
author = {{Ochsner, Michelle}},
isbn = {{978-91-8104-929-9}},
language = {{eng}},
publisher = {{Department of Technology and Society, Lund University}},
school = {{Lund University}},
title = {{Navigating Climate Risks in Rail Transport : Weather Impacts, Governance Challenges, and Climate Adaptation Approaches}},
year = {{2026}},
}