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Changes of storm properties in the United States : Observations and multimodel ensemble projections

Jiang, Peng; Yu, Zhongbo; Gautam, Mahesh R.; Yuan, Feifei LU and Acharya, Kumud (2016) In Global and Planetary Change 142. p.41-52
Abstract

Changes in climate are likely to induce changes in precipitation characteristics including intensity, frequency, duration and patterns of events. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of multiple regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to simulate storm properties including storm duration, inter-storm period, storm intensity, and within-storm patterns at eight locations in the continental US. We also investigate the future projections of them based on precipitation from NARCCAP historic runs and future runs. Results illustrate that NARCCAP RCMs are consistent with observed precipitation in the seasonal variation of storm duration and inter-storm period, but fail to... (More)

Changes in climate are likely to induce changes in precipitation characteristics including intensity, frequency, duration and patterns of events. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of multiple regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to simulate storm properties including storm duration, inter-storm period, storm intensity, and within-storm patterns at eight locations in the continental US. We also investigate the future projections of them based on precipitation from NARCCAP historic runs and future runs. Results illustrate that NARCCAP RCMs are consistent with observed precipitation in the seasonal variation of storm duration and inter-storm period, but fail to simulate the magnitude. The ability to simulate the seasonal trend of average storm intensity varies among locations. Within-storm patterns from RCMs exhibit greater variability than from observed records. Comparisons between RCM-historic simulations and RCM projections indicate that there is a large variation in the future changes in storm properties. However, multi-model ensembles of the storm properties suggest that most regions of the United States will experience future changes in storm properties that includes shorter storm duration, longer inter-storm period, and larger average storm intensity.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Multi-model ensembles, NARCCAP RCMs, Percentage changes, Storm properties
in
Global and Planetary Change
volume
142
pages
12 pages
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:84971667615
  • wos:000379096800004
ISSN
0921-8181
DOI
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.05.001
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
c0c9eb21-48ab-468e-89e0-8f606760fd4b
date added to LUP
2017-01-18 09:43:56
date last changed
2017-09-18 11:32:17
@article{c0c9eb21-48ab-468e-89e0-8f606760fd4b,
  abstract     = {<p>Changes in climate are likely to induce changes in precipitation characteristics including intensity, frequency, duration and patterns of events. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of multiple regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to simulate storm properties including storm duration, inter-storm period, storm intensity, and within-storm patterns at eight locations in the continental US. We also investigate the future projections of them based on precipitation from NARCCAP historic runs and future runs. Results illustrate that NARCCAP RCMs are consistent with observed precipitation in the seasonal variation of storm duration and inter-storm period, but fail to simulate the magnitude. The ability to simulate the seasonal trend of average storm intensity varies among locations. Within-storm patterns from RCMs exhibit greater variability than from observed records. Comparisons between RCM-historic simulations and RCM projections indicate that there is a large variation in the future changes in storm properties. However, multi-model ensembles of the storm properties suggest that most regions of the United States will experience future changes in storm properties that includes shorter storm duration, longer inter-storm period, and larger average storm intensity.</p>},
  author       = {Jiang, Peng and Yu, Zhongbo and Gautam, Mahesh R. and Yuan, Feifei and Acharya, Kumud},
  issn         = {0921-8181},
  keyword      = {Multi-model ensembles,NARCCAP RCMs,Percentage changes,Storm properties},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {07},
  pages        = {41--52},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Global and Planetary Change},
  title        = {Changes of storm properties in the United States : Observations and multimodel ensemble projections},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.05.001},
  volume       = {142},
  year         = {2016},
}