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Voter Responses to Social Democratic Ideological Moderation after the Third Way

Polk, Jonathan LU orcid and Karreth, Johannes (2024) p.279-313
Abstract
To what extent does moderation in ideological positioning by social democratic parties affect their short- and long-term electoral fortunes? Do existing social democratic electorates respond differently to moderation from the major parties of the Moderate Left on the economic as opposed to the cultural dimension? Previous research suggests that social democratic parties received an influx of centrist voters post-moderation but that these new centrist voters were less attached to the party and left in later elections, as did left-leaning social democrats frustrated by moderation strategies. This chapter further probes whether there is a link between moderation and individual voters’ shifts from social democratic parties at a later point, by... (More)
To what extent does moderation in ideological positioning by social democratic parties affect their short- and long-term electoral fortunes? Do existing social democratic electorates respond differently to moderation from the major parties of the Moderate Left on the economic as opposed to the cultural dimension? Previous research suggests that social democratic parties received an influx of centrist voters post-moderation but that these new centrist voters were less attached to the party and left in later elections, as did left-leaning social democrats frustrated by moderation strategies. This chapter further probes whether there is a link between moderation and individual voters’ shifts from social democratic parties at a later point, by considering a larger number of cases and by differentiating between the economic and cultural dimensions. We examine individual-level data on voting behavior combined with information on mainstream left parties’ ideological shifts in up to fifty elections in sixteen countries over recent decades. The findings show that (a) moderation can have detrimental consequences in the longer term; (b) the consequences of moderation differ across the left-right and cultural dimensions of electoral competition; and (c) the combination of individual-level analysis, with broader contextual and systemic considerations, is essential to fully engage with these questions. (Less)
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author
and
organization
publishing date
type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
host publication
Beyond Social Democracy : The Transformation of the Left in Emerging Knowledge Societies - The Transformation of the Left in Emerging Knowledge Societies
editor
Häusermann, Silja and Kitschelt, Herbert
pages
279 - 313
publisher
Cambridge University Press
external identifiers
  • scopus:105011229038
ISBN
9781009496810
DOI
10.1017/9781009496810.013
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
c1b50f05-ddad-471d-a1f1-3a8f1ba7c48b
date added to LUP
2024-10-10 09:26:15
date last changed
2025-08-03 04:05:20
@inbook{c1b50f05-ddad-471d-a1f1-3a8f1ba7c48b,
  abstract     = {{To what extent does moderation in ideological positioning by social democratic parties affect their short- and long-term electoral fortunes? Do existing social democratic electorates respond differently to moderation from the major parties of the Moderate Left on the economic as opposed to the cultural dimension? Previous research suggests that social democratic parties received an influx of centrist voters post-moderation but that these new centrist voters were less attached to the party and left in later elections, as did left-leaning social democrats frustrated by moderation strategies. This chapter further probes whether there is a link between moderation and individual voters’ shifts from social democratic parties at a later point, by considering a larger number of cases and by differentiating between the economic and cultural dimensions. We examine individual-level data on voting behavior combined with information on mainstream left parties’ ideological shifts in up to fifty elections in sixteen countries over recent decades. The findings show that (a) moderation can have detrimental consequences in the longer term; (b) the consequences of moderation differ across the left-right and cultural dimensions of electoral competition; and (c) the combination of individual-level analysis, with broader contextual and systemic considerations, is essential to fully engage with these questions.}},
  author       = {{Polk, Jonathan and Karreth, Johannes}},
  booktitle    = {{Beyond Social Democracy : The Transformation of the Left in Emerging Knowledge Societies}},
  editor       = {{Häusermann, Silja and Kitschelt, Herbert}},
  isbn         = {{9781009496810}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  pages        = {{279--313}},
  publisher    = {{Cambridge University Press}},
  title        = {{Voter Responses to Social Democratic Ideological Moderation after the Third Way}},
  url          = {{https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/197005659/voter-responses-to-social-democratic-ideological-moderation-after-the-third-way.pdf}},
  doi          = {{10.1017/9781009496810.013}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}