Skip to main content

Lund University Publications

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

Persistent Model Biases in the Spatial Variability of Winter North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation

Tao, Qin LU orcid ; Sjolte, Jesper LU orcid and Muscheler, Raimund LU orcid (2023) In Geophysical Research Letters 50(23).
Abstract
The three leading modes of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation explain about 70% of the winter climate variability. Although climate models generally can capture these modes, biases may induce large uncertainties in regional climate predictions. Here, we evaluate the leading winter modes simulated by CMIP5-PMIP3 and CMIP6-PMIP4 models from the last millennium to future scenarios in comparison with historical reanalysis and paleo-reconstructions. The models generally have a good representation of the average spatial pattern of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) while showing a larger spread in performance for the East Atlantic and Scandinavian patterns. In contrast to historical reanalysis, the simulated NAO pattern tends to be... (More)
The three leading modes of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation explain about 70% of the winter climate variability. Although climate models generally can capture these modes, biases may induce large uncertainties in regional climate predictions. Here, we evaluate the leading winter modes simulated by CMIP5-PMIP3 and CMIP6-PMIP4 models from the last millennium to future scenarios in comparison with historical reanalysis and paleo-reconstructions. The models generally have a good representation of the average spatial pattern of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) while showing a larger spread in performance for the East Atlantic and Scandinavian patterns. In contrast to historical reanalysis, the simulated NAO pattern tends to be rather stationary under various climate states over the years 861–2100. Such underestimated spatial variability in the simulated NAO is directly related to the biased spatial shifts in NAO-related regional temperature and precipitation changes, inducing uncertainties in climate projections over the North Atlantic sector. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Geophysical Research Letters
volume
50
issue
23
article number
e2023GL105231
publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
external identifiers
  • scopus:85177805349
ISSN
1944-8007
DOI
10.1029/2023GL105231
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
c28780cb-1735-49f6-96eb-6172baddf586
date added to LUP
2023-11-29 11:36:50
date last changed
2023-12-18 14:26:25
@article{c28780cb-1735-49f6-96eb-6172baddf586,
  abstract     = {{The three leading modes of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation explain about 70% of the winter climate variability. Although climate models generally can capture these modes, biases may induce large uncertainties in regional climate predictions. Here, we evaluate the leading winter modes simulated by CMIP5-PMIP3 and CMIP6-PMIP4 models from the last millennium to future scenarios in comparison with historical reanalysis and paleo-reconstructions. The models generally have a good representation of the average spatial pattern of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) while showing a larger spread in performance for the East Atlantic and Scandinavian patterns. In contrast to historical reanalysis, the simulated NAO pattern tends to be rather stationary under various climate states over the years 861–2100. Such underestimated spatial variability in the simulated NAO is directly related to the biased spatial shifts in NAO-related regional temperature and precipitation changes, inducing uncertainties in climate projections over the North Atlantic sector.}},
  author       = {{Tao, Qin and Sjolte, Jesper and Muscheler, Raimund}},
  issn         = {{1944-8007}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{12}},
  number       = {{23}},
  publisher    = {{American Geophysical Union (AGU)}},
  series       = {{Geophysical Research Letters}},
  title        = {{Persistent Model Biases in the Spatial Variability of Winter North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105231}},
  doi          = {{10.1029/2023GL105231}},
  volume       = {{50}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}