Revisiting evolutionary rate–time relationships
De Lisle, Stephen P. LU and Svensson, Erik I. LU
(2026)
In Evolution
80(1).
p.28-39
- Abstract
Rates of molecular, phenotypic, and lineage diversification typically scale negatively with time interval of measurement, raising longstanding questions about time-dependency of evolutionary processes. These patterns and their potential meaning have recently re-entered evolutionary discussions. In this Perspective, we revisit the general challenges in interpreting rate–time relationships. Much apparent temporal scaling of evolutionary rate is an inescapable outcome of plotting a ratio against its denominator, either directly or indirectly. Highly unlikely relationships between timescale and accumulated evolutionary change are required to produce anything other than negative rate–time relationships. Simulations reveal that constant-rate... (More)
Rates of molecular, phenotypic, and lineage diversification typically scale negatively with time interval of measurement, raising longstanding questions about time-dependency of evolutionary processes. These patterns and their potential meaning have recently re-entered evolutionary discussions. In this Perspective, we revisit the general challenges in interpreting rate–time relationships. Much apparent temporal scaling of evolutionary rate is an inescapable outcome of plotting a ratio against its denominator, either directly or indirectly. Highly unlikely relationships between timescale and accumulated evolutionary change are required to produce anything other than negative rate–time relationships. Simulations reveal that constant-rate evolutionary processes readily generate negative rate–time scaling relationships under many conditions, and that a range of rate–time scaling exponents can be generated by different evolutionary processes. Reanalysis of 6 empirical datasets reveals unscaled magnitudes of evolution that are either unrelated to time and/or vary in their relationship with time. Over 99% of variation in rate–time relationships across 6 datasets is explained by time variation alone. We further evaluated a recent hypothesis that evolutionary rate–time scaling reflects three modes of change, from micro- to macroevolutionary time scales using break-point regression, but we found no strong support for this hypothesis. Taken together, negative rate–time relationships are therefore largely inevitable and challenging to interpret. In contrast, it is more straightforward to assess how evolutionary change accumulates with time.
(Less)
- author
- De Lisle, Stephen P.
LU
and Svensson, Erik I.
LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2026-01-01
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- evolutionary rate, macroevolution, microevolution, stasis paradox
- in
- Evolution
- volume
- 80
- issue
- 1
- pages
- 12 pages
- publisher
- Wiley-Blackwell
- external identifiers
-
- pmid:41124039
- scopus:105028599142
- ISSN
- 0014-3820
- DOI
- 10.1093/evolut/qpaf222
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2025. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution (SSE).
- id
- c3ece1b9-3596-4a17-848f-a74fc2a650a7
- date added to LUP
- 2026-02-23 16:08:10
- date last changed
- 2026-02-24 02:57:54
@article{c3ece1b9-3596-4a17-848f-a74fc2a650a7,
abstract = {{<p>Rates of molecular, phenotypic, and lineage diversification typically scale negatively with time interval of measurement, raising longstanding questions about time-dependency of evolutionary processes. These patterns and their potential meaning have recently re-entered evolutionary discussions. In this Perspective, we revisit the general challenges in interpreting rate–time relationships. Much apparent temporal scaling of evolutionary rate is an inescapable outcome of plotting a ratio against its denominator, either directly or indirectly. Highly unlikely relationships between timescale and accumulated evolutionary change are required to produce anything other than negative rate–time relationships. Simulations reveal that constant-rate evolutionary processes readily generate negative rate–time scaling relationships under many conditions, and that a range of rate–time scaling exponents can be generated by different evolutionary processes. Reanalysis of 6 empirical datasets reveals unscaled magnitudes of evolution that are either unrelated to time and/or vary in their relationship with time. Over 99% of variation in rate–time relationships across 6 datasets is explained by time variation alone. We further evaluated a recent hypothesis that evolutionary rate–time scaling reflects three modes of change, from micro- to macroevolutionary time scales using break-point regression, but we found no strong support for this hypothesis. Taken together, negative rate–time relationships are therefore largely inevitable and challenging to interpret. In contrast, it is more straightforward to assess how evolutionary change accumulates with time.</p>}},
author = {{De Lisle, Stephen P. and Svensson, Erik I.}},
issn = {{0014-3820}},
keywords = {{evolutionary rate; macroevolution; microevolution; stasis paradox}},
language = {{eng}},
month = {{01}},
number = {{1}},
pages = {{28--39}},
publisher = {{Wiley-Blackwell}},
series = {{Evolution}},
title = {{Revisiting evolutionary rate–time relationships}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/evolut/qpaf222}},
doi = {{10.1093/evolut/qpaf222}},
volume = {{80}},
year = {{2026}},
}