Societal drought vulnerability and the Syrian climate-conflict nexus are better explained by agriculture than meteorology
(2022) In Nature Communications Earth & Environment 3(85).- Abstract
- Droughts are often suspected to increase the risk of violent conflict through agricultural production shocks, and existing studies often explore these links through meteorological proxies. In Syria, an alleged agricultural collapse caused by drought is assumed to have contributed to increased migration and the conflict outbreak in 2011. Here we use satellite derived cropland and climate data to study land use dynamics in relation to drought and conflict in Syria. We show that claims of an agricultural collapse cannot be substantiated as croplands saw a fast recovery after the 2007–2009 drought. Our study highlights the importance of considering land-use dynamics for understanding linkages between meteorological droughts, agricultural... (More)
- Droughts are often suspected to increase the risk of violent conflict through agricultural production shocks, and existing studies often explore these links through meteorological proxies. In Syria, an alleged agricultural collapse caused by drought is assumed to have contributed to increased migration and the conflict outbreak in 2011. Here we use satellite derived cropland and climate data to study land use dynamics in relation to drought and conflict in Syria. We show that claims of an agricultural collapse cannot be substantiated as croplands saw a fast recovery after the 2007–2009 drought. Our study highlights the importance of considering land-use dynamics for understanding linkages between meteorological droughts, agricultural impacts, migration and conflict. Furthermore, our results suggest that the influential drought-migration-conflict narrative for Syria needs to be reexamined, with implications for wider discussions of how climate change might alter conflict risk. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/c95bb95d-1ffd-44f8-8df1-23ecfab4c027
- author
- Eklund, Lina LU ; Theisen, Ole Magnus ; Baumann, Matthias ; Forø Tollefsen, Andreas ; Kuemmerle, Tobias and Østergaard Nielsen, Jonas
- organization
- publishing date
- 2022-04-06
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- drought, land use, conflict, Syria, climate change, migration, agriculture
- in
- Nature Communications Earth & Environment
- volume
- 3
- issue
- 85
- pages
- 9 pages
- publisher
- Springer Nature
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85130433956
- ISSN
- 2662-4435
- project
- Societal impacts of climate stress: An integrated assessment of drought, vulnerability, and conflict in Syria
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- c95bb95d-1ffd-44f8-8df1-23ecfab4c027
- alternative location
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00405-w#citeas
- date added to LUP
- 2020-12-07 09:45:06
- date last changed
- 2023-10-09 05:07:31
@article{c95bb95d-1ffd-44f8-8df1-23ecfab4c027,
abstract = {{Droughts are often suspected to increase the risk of violent conflict through agricultural production shocks, and existing studies often explore these links through meteorological proxies. In Syria, an alleged agricultural collapse caused by drought is assumed to have contributed to increased migration and the conflict outbreak in 2011. Here we use satellite derived cropland and climate data to study land use dynamics in relation to drought and conflict in Syria. We show that claims of an agricultural collapse cannot be substantiated as croplands saw a fast recovery after the 2007–2009 drought. Our study highlights the importance of considering land-use dynamics for understanding linkages between meteorological droughts, agricultural impacts, migration and conflict. Furthermore, our results suggest that the influential drought-migration-conflict narrative for Syria needs to be reexamined, with implications for wider discussions of how climate change might alter conflict risk.}},
author = {{Eklund, Lina and Theisen, Ole Magnus and Baumann, Matthias and Forø Tollefsen, Andreas and Kuemmerle, Tobias and Østergaard Nielsen, Jonas}},
issn = {{2662-4435}},
keywords = {{drought; land use; conflict; Syria; climate change; migration; agriculture}},
language = {{eng}},
month = {{04}},
number = {{85}},
publisher = {{Springer Nature}},
series = {{Nature Communications Earth & Environment}},
title = {{Societal drought vulnerability and the Syrian climate-conflict nexus are better explained by agriculture than meteorology}},
url = {{https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00405-w#citeas}},
volume = {{3}},
year = {{2022}},
}